国际货币基金组织:2021年10月刊世界经济展望报告(R0232)

杨俊语语il

全球经济持续复苏，但受疫情影响，复苏势头已经减弱。高传染性的德尔塔毒株正在全球肆虐，新冠肺炎死亡人数已经接近500万人，各国面临巨大的健康风险，经济实现完全复苏的进程受阻。处于全球供应链重要环节的国家暴发疫情，导致供应中断的持续时间比预期更长，这在许多国家推升了通货膨胀。总的来说，经济前景面临的风险已经增加，政策权衡取舍已经变得更加复杂。

相比今年7月的预测，此次国际货币基金组织将2021年全球增速预测值小幅下调至5.9%，将2022年的预测值保持在4.9%不变。然而，总体增速预测值的小幅下调掩盖了一些国家的大幅下调。由于疫情恶化，低收入发展中国家的前景已经变得更为黯淡。发达经济体的近期前景也变得更为困难，这在一定程度上是由供给扰动导致的。与此同时，由于大宗商品价格上涨，我们上调了部分大宗商品出口国的增速预测值，这部分抵消了上述预测值的变化。由于疫情对接触密集型行业造成了干扰，大多数国家的劳动力市场复苏明显滞后于产出复苏。

不同国家的经济前景呈现出危险的分化趋势，这仍是我们关注的一个主要问题。发达经济体的总产出预计将在2022年恢复至疫情前的趋势水平，在2024年超出疫情前趋势水平0.9%。相反，到2024年，新兴市场和发展中经济体（不包括中国）的总产出预计仍将比疫情前的预测值低5.5%，意味着这些国家在提高生活水平方面的进展将出现更严重的倒退。

这种差异是由“疫苗差距”和政策支持的巨大差异造成的。在发达经济体，60%以上的人口已经完成了疫苗接种，一些人正在接受加强注射，但低收入国家约90%的人口尚未接种疫苗。此外，尽管新兴和发展中经济体的生产赤字更大，但由于更严格的融资环境和通胀预期变化的风险增加，他们正在更快地取消政策支持。

供应扰动引发了另一个政策挑战。一方面，在一些国家，疫情爆发和不利气候导致大量生产投入短缺，导致制造活动疲软。另一方面，这些供应短缺，再加上受抑制的需求的释放和大宗商品价格的回升，导致消费价格通胀迅速上升。在美国、德国以及许多新兴市场和发展中经济体都出现了这种情况，在粮食安全问题最严重的低收入国家，粮食价格进一步上涨，增加了贫困家庭的负担和社会动荡的风险。

2021年10月的《全球金融稳定报告》强调，金融市场的风险行为增加，非银行金融机构的脆弱性增加，这给货币政策带来了另一个挑战。



The global economy continues to recover, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the momentum of recovery has weakened. The highly contagious delta strain is raging around the world. The death toll from new coronary pneumonia has reached nearly 5 million. Countries are facing huge health risks, and the process of achieving a full economic recovery is hindered. The outbreak of the epidemic in a country that is an important part of the global supply chain has caused supply interruptions to last longer than expected, which has pushed up inflation in many countries. In general, risks to the economic outlook have increased, and policy trade-offs have become more complicated.

Compared with the forecast in July this year, the International Monetary Fund has slightly lowered the global growth forecast for 2021 to 5.9%, and kept the forecast for 2022 at 4.9%. However, the slight downward revision of the overall growth rate forecast concealed the substantial downward revision in some countries. As the epidemic worsens, the prospects of low-income developing countries have become more bleak. The near-term prospects of advanced economies have also become more difficult, partly due to supply disturbances. At the same time, due to the increase in commodity prices, we have raised the growth forecasts of some commodity exporting countries, which partially offset the changes in the above forecasts. As the epidemic has disrupted contact-intensive industries, the recovery of labor markets in most countries has lagged significantly behind the recovery of output.

The economic prospects of different countries are showing a dangerous divergence trend, which is still a major issue of our concern. The total output of advanced economies is expected to return to the pre-epidemic trend level in 2022, and exceed the pre-epidemic trend level by 0.9% in 2024. On the contrary, by 2024, the total output of emerging markets and developing economies (excluding China) is expected to be 5.5% lower than the pre-epidemic forecast, which means that these countries will make more progress in improving living standards. The backwards.

This difference is caused by the "vaccine gap" and the huge difference in policy support. In developed economies, more than 60% of the population has been vaccinated and some people are receiving booster shots, but about 90% of the population in low-income countries has not yet been vaccinated. In addition, although emerging and developing economies have larger production deficits, they are removing policy support more quickly due to stricter financing environments and increased risks of changes in inflation expectations.

Supply disturbances raise another policy challenge. On the one hand, in some countries, the outbreak of the epidemic and unfavorable weather have led to a shortage of large-scale production inputs, leading to weak manufacturing activities. On the other hand, these supply shortages, coupled with the release of suppressed demand and the rebound in commodity prices, have led to a rapid rise in consumer price inflation. This situation has occurred in the United States, Germany, and many emerging markets and developing economies. In low-income countries where food security is the most serious, food prices have risen further, increasing the burden on poor families and the risk of social unrest.

The October 2021 Global Financial Stability Report emphasized that risky behavior in financial markets has increased and the vulnerability of non-bank financial institutions has increased, which has brought another challenge to monetary policy.









































版权归原作者所有，如有侵权请后台联系我们，我们将第一时间处理







我们通过人力、物力、时间去寻找这份得来不易的报告，若想获得原版PDF，请打赏5元服务费来支持我们继续为大家服务下去。

请添加以下WX，把报告编号（例如R0232）告诉我们即可。



类似报告

世界经济论坛：全球灯塔网络：利用第四次工业革命，提高可持续发展水平报告（R0225）

国际货币基金组织：2021年最新世界经济展望报告【R0110】

世界经济论坛：2021全球风险报告 【R0044】

世界经济论坛：2020年全球竞争力报告–特别版（英文，免费PDF下载）

世界经济论坛：明天的市场：通往新经济的途径（英文，免费PDF下载）

独家出品

独家出品：高效进行Google Ad投放手册 [T0001]

独家出品：2021年基于企业帐户的（B2B）营销计划模板 [T0002]

               
作者：营销老司机 MKT DRIVER