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Confronting the Crisis: Priorities for the Global Economy
By Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director
直面危机：全球经济的优先事项
克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃 国际货币基金组织总裁
Introduction: A Crisis Like No Other引言：截然不同的危机
I want to begin by wishing my personal best to everyone—for you and your families’ health and safety during these difficult times.首先，我想向所有人送上我最美好的祝福——在这个艰难时刻，祝各位和家人健康、平安。
Today we are confronted with a crisis like no other. Covid-19 has disrupted our social and economic order at lightning speed and on a scale that we have not seen in living memory. The virus is causing tragic loss of life, and the lockdown needed to fight it has affected billions of people. What was normal just a few weeks ago—going to school, going to work, being with family and friends—is now a huge risk.今天，我们面临一场截然不同的危机。COVID-19以闪电般的速度和我们记忆中从未见过的规模扰乱了我们的社会和经济秩序。病毒正在造成悲惨的生命损失，对抗病毒所需的封锁也影响了数十亿民众。几周前的日常——上学、上班、与家人和朋友聚会——现在已成为巨大的风险。
I have no doubt that we will overcome this challenge. Our doctors and nurses are fighting it around the clock, often risking their lives to save the lives of others. Our scientists will come up with solutions to break COVID-19’s grip. Between now and then, we must marshal the determination of all—individuals, governments, businesses, community leaders, international organizations—to act decisively and act together, to protect lives and livelihoods. These are the times for which the IMF was created—we are here to deploy the strength of the global community, so we can help shield the most vulnerable people and revitalize the economy.我深信不疑的是，我们将克服这一挑战。医生和护士正在争分夺秒地与病毒作斗争，往往冒着失去生命的危险挽救他人的生命。科学家将提出解决方案，使人类摆脱COVID-19的魔爪。在此之前，我们必须凝聚所有人的决心——个人、政府、企业、社区领袖、国际组织等——果断地共同采取行动，保护人类生命和生计。基金组织正是为这样的时刻所建立的——我们的宗旨是动用全球社会的力量，以帮助保护最脆弱的群体并重振经济。
The actions we take now will determine the speed and strength of our recovery. That will be the focus of the IMF’s 189 member countries when we meet in our virtual Spring Meetings next week. 我们现在采取的行动将决定经济复苏的速度和力度。这是国际货币基金组织（“基金组织”）189个成员国在下周召开的远程春季会议上讨论的焦点。
It is what I will concentrate on today. 这也是我今天演讲的主题。
Where We Stand: the Status of the Global Economy我们的处境：全球经济现状
First, let’s look at where we stand. We are still faced with extraordinary uncertainty about the depth and duration of this crisis.首先，让我们审视当前的处境。关于危机的深度和持续时间，我们仍面临极大的不确定性。
It is already clear, however, that global growth will turn sharply negative in 2020, as you will see in our World Economic Outlook next week. In fact, we anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression.然而，已然明朗的是，2020年全球经济将急剧跌入负增长，你将从下周发布的《世界经济展望》中了解相关情况。事实上，我们预计将出现大萧条以来最糟糕的经济后果。
Just three months ago, we expected positive per capita income growth in over 160 of our member countries in 2020. Today, that number has been turned on its head: we now project that over 170 countries will experience negative per capita income growth this year.仅在3个月前，我们预计2020年基金组织成员国中将有超过160 个国家实现人均收入正增长。今天，数字已经颠倒过来：我们预计今年将有超过170个国家出现人均收入负增长。
The bleak outlook applies to advanced and developing economies alike. This crisis knows no boundaries. Everybody hurts.发达和发展中经济体都将面临暗淡的经济前景。这次危机不分国界。每个人都身受其害。
Given the necessary containment measures to slow the spread of the virus, the world economy is taking a substantial hit. This is especially true for retail, hospitality, transport, and tourism. In most countries, the majority of workers are either self-employed or employed by small and medium-sized enterprises. These businesses and workers are especially exposed.考虑到各国延缓病毒传播的必要防控措施，世界经济遭到了沉重打击，特别是零售、餐饮住宿、交通运输和旅游业。在多数国家，大多数劳动者或从事个体经营，或受雇于中小型企业。这些企业和工人尤其受到影响。
And just as the health crisis hits vulnerable people hardest, the economic crisis is expected to hit vulnerable countries hardest.同时，正如卫生危机对脆弱群体的打击最为沉重一样，预计经济危机对脆弱国家的打击也是最沉重的。
Emerging markets and low-income nations—across Africa, Latin America, and much of Asia—are at high risk. With weaker health systems to begin with, many face the dreadful challenge of fighting the virus in densely populated cities and poverty-stricken slums—where social distancing is hardly an option. With fewer resources to begin with, they are dangerously exposed to the ongoing demand and supply shocks, drastic tightening in financial conditions, and some may face an unsustainable debt burden.非洲、拉丁美洲和亚洲多数地区的新兴市场和低收入国家面临较高的风险。这些地区的很多国家首先卫生体系较为薄弱，面临在人口密集的城市和贫穷的贫民窟（保持社交距离几乎不可能）抗击病毒的可怕挑战。这些国家首先资源较少，面临目前的需求和供给冲击以及金融条件急剧收紧的风险，部分国家的债务负担可能难以持续。
They are also exposed to massive external pressure. 它们还面临巨大的外部压力。
In the last two months, portfolio outflows from emerging markets were about $100 billion—more than three times larger than for the same period of the global financial crisis. Commodity exporters are taking a double blow from the collapse in commodity prices. And remittances—the lifeblood of so many poor people—are expected to dwindle. 在过去两个月中，从新兴市场流出的证券投资规模约1000亿美元 ，比全球金融危机同期高出两倍以上。大宗商品出口国遭受了大宗商品价格崩溃的双重打击。侨汇——众多穷人的命脉——预计将会萎缩。
We estimate the gross external financing needs for emerging market and developing countries to be in the trillions of dollars, and they can cover only a portion of that on their own, leaving residual gaps in the hundreds of billions of dollars. They urgently need help. 我们预计新兴市场和发展中国家的外部融资总需求达到数万亿美元，而且它们只能自行筹集一部分资金，这带来了数千亿美元的剩余融资缺口。它们迫切需要得到帮助。
The encouraging news is that all governments have sprung into action and, indeed, there has been significant coordination. Our Fiscal Monitor next week will show that countries around the world have taken fiscal actions amounting to about $8 trillion. In addition, there have been massive monetary measures from the G20 and others.令人鼓舞的消息是，所有政府当局已经迅速行动起来，事实上，它们开展了大规模协作。将于下周发布的基金组织《财政监测报告》显示，全世界各国已开展了规模达到大约8万亿美元的财政行动。此外，二十国集团和其他国家也实施了大规模货币措施。
Many of the poorer nations are also taking bold fiscal and monetary action, even as they grapple with this fundamental shock to their systems—and with far less firepower than their rich-country counterparts.很多较贫穷的国家也在采取大胆的财政和货币行动，尽管它们要应对其经济体系面临的根本冲击——与富裕国家相比，它们的资源少得多。
So this is a snapshot of where the global economy stands today. 因此，这就是全球经济当前处境的缩影。
There is no question that 2020 will be exceptionally difficult. If the pandemic fades in the second half of the year—thus allowing a gradual lifting of containment measures and reopening of the economy—our baseline assumption is for a partial recovery in 2021. But again, I stress there is tremendous uncertainty around the outlook: it could get worse depending on many variable factors, including the duration of the pandemic.毫无疑问，2020年将会特别艰难。若这一流行病在下半年消退——允许逐步取消防控措施并重启经济活动——我们的基线假设是2021年出现局部经济复苏。但我想再次强调，这一前景存在重大不确定性。它可能因为很多变量而出现恶化，包括流行病的持续时间。
And crucially, everything depends on the policy actions we take now. 关键在于，一切都取决于我们现在采取的政策行动。
What Needs to be Done: a 4-Point Plan需要采取哪些行动：四点计划
My next point is about building the bridge to recovery. We see four priorities:我接下来谈谈搭建通往复苏的桥梁。我们认为有四个优先事项：
•First, continue with essential containment measures and support for health systems. Some say there is a trade-off between saving lives and saving livelihoods. I say it is a false dilemma. Given this is a pandemic crisis, defeating the virus and defending people’s health are necessary for economic recovery. So the message is clear: prioritize health spending for testing and medical equipment; pay doctors and nurses; make sure hospitals and makeshift clinics can function. For many countries—particularly in the emerging and developing world—this means carefully reallocating limited public resources. It also means increasing the flow of resources to these countries. That includes the flow of vital goods: we must minimize disruptions to supply chains and, with immediate effect, refrain from export controls on medical supplies and food.第一，继续实施必要的防控措施，为卫生体系提供支撑。有人说，应该在拯救生命和挽救生计之间进行权衡。我认为这是一个虚假的两难选择。考虑到这是一场流行病危机，击败病毒和保卫民众健康是经济复苏的必要条件。所以，我的观点很明确：将卫生支出优先用于检测和医用设备、为医生和护士支付薪酬、确保医院和临时诊所正常运转。对于很多国家——尤其是新兴和发展中国家——这意味着谨慎地重新分配有限的公共资源。这还意味着增加流入这些国家的资源。这包括输出必要商品：我们必须尽可能缓解供应链中断的影响，并立即避免管控医用品和食品出口。
•Second, shield affected people and firms with large, timely, targeted fiscal and financial sector measures. This varies according to country circumstances, but it includes tax deferrals, wage subsidies and cash transfers to the most vulnerable; extending unemployment insurance and social assistance; and temporarily adjusting credit guarantees and loan terms. Some of these measures have been taken in the first wave of policy support. Many countries are already working on a second wave. Lifelines for households and businesses are imperative. We need to prevent liquidity pressures from turning into solvency problems and avoid a scarring of the economy that would make the recovery so much more difficult.第二，采取大规模、及时、有针对性的财政和金融部门措施，为受影响的民众和公司提供保护。这根据各国的国情而有所不同，但包括税收递延，针对最脆弱群体的工资补贴和现金转移支付，扩大失业保险和社会援助范围，以及临时调整信用担保和贷款条款。部分措施已经在第一轮政策支持中实施。很多国家已经在研究第二轮措施。家庭生计和公司生命线至关重要 。我们需要防止流动性压力演变成偿付问题，同时避免对经济造成重创，进而加剧经济复苏的难度。
•Third, reduce stress to the financial system and avoid contagion. Our upcoming Global Financial Stability Report will analyze the range of vulnerabilities in the financial sector. Banks have built up more capital and liquidity over the past decade, and their resilience will be tested in this rapidly changing environment. The financial system is facing significant pressures, and monetary stimulus and liquidity facilities play an indispensable role. Interest rates have been lowered in many countries. Major central banks have activated swap lines and created new ones to reduce financial market stress. Enhancing liquidity for a broader range of emerging economies would provide further relief. Importantly, it would also lift confidence.第三，减轻金融体系压力并避免风险蔓延。我们即将发布的《全球金融稳定报告》将分析金融部门的一系列脆弱性。过去十年，银行积累了更多资本和流动性，其韧性将在快速变化的环境中接受考验。金融体系正面临严重压力，货币刺激和流动性便利能发挥不可或缺的作用。很多国家已下调利率，主要央行还启用了互换额度并建立了新的互换安排来缓解金融市场压力。为更广泛的新兴经济体改善流动性将提供进一步救助。重要的是，这也将提振信心。
•Fourth, even as we move through this containment phase, we must plan for recovery. Again, we must minimize the potential scarring effects of the crisis through policy action now. This requires careful consideration of when to gradually ease restrictions, based on clear evidence that the epidemic is retreating. As measures to stabilize the economy take hold and business starts to normalize, we will need to move swiftly to boost demand. Coordinated fiscal stimulus will be essential. Where inflation remains low and well-anchored, monetary policy should remain accommodative. Those with greater resources and policy space will need to do more; others, with limited resources will need more support.第四，即使度过这个防控阶段，我们必须做好复苏阶段的计划。这里重申，当前我们必须通过政策行动尽可能减少危机可能造成的创伤。这要求我们基于流行病消退的明确证据，谨慎考虑逐步放松限制措施的时机。随着稳定经济的措施得到巩固且企业开始正常运转，我们将需要快速转向刺激需求。协调一致的财政刺激将是必要的。通胀仍然较低且保持稳定的国家应该维持宽松的货币政策。资源更多且政策空间更大的国家将需要采取更多行动，其他资源有限的国家将需要更多支持。
The IMF: All Hands on Deck基金组织：动用所有力量
This leads me to the role of the IMF.这让我想到了基金组织的作用。
We are working 24/7 to support our member countries—with policy advice, technical assistance and financial resources:我们正在全天候工作，为我们的成员国提供支持——包括政策建议、技术援助和金融资源。
— We have $1 trillion in lending capacity and are placing it at the service of our membership.——我们拥有一万亿美元的贷款能力来为成员国提供服务。
— We are responding to an unprecedented number of calls for emergency financing—from over 90 countries so far. Our Executive Board has just agreed to double access to our emergency facilities, which will allow us to meet the expected demand of about $100 billion in financing. Lending programs have already been approved at record speed—including for the Kyrgyz Republic, Rwanda, Madagascar, and Togo—with many more to come.——我们正在响应前所未有的紧急融资请求——截至目前已超过90个国家。基金组织执行董事会已同意将可用紧急信贷增加一倍，这将确保我们能满足预计约1000亿美元的融资需求。贷款规划的审批速度已创下历史记录——包括对吉尔吉斯斯坦共和国、卢旺达、马达加斯加和多哥的贷款规划 ——更多规划也将获批
— We are reviewing our tool kit to see how we might better use precautionary credit lines to encourage additional liquidity support, establish a short-term liquidity line, and help meet countries’ financing needs via other options—including the use of SDRs. And where we might be unable to lend because a country’s debt is unsustainable, we will look for solutions that can unlock critical financing.——我们正在审查基金组织的工具箱，探索可能如何更好地使用预防性信贷额度来促进额外的流动性支持，建立短期流动性额度，并通过其他选项——包括使用特别提款权（SDR）——满足成员国的融资需求。如果一个国家的债务不可持续，我们可能无法提供贷款，我们将寻找能够释放关键融资的解决方案。
— We have revamped our Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust to provide immediate debt relief to low-income countries affected by the crisis, thereby creating space for spending on urgent health needs rather than debt repayment. We are now working with donors to increase the CCRT to $1.4 billion to extend the duration of the debt relief.——我们改进了控灾减灾信托（CCRT）， 旨在为受危机影响的低收入国家立即提供债务减免，从而为紧急卫生需求的开支而非债务偿还创造空间。目前，我们正与捐助方合作将CCRT的规模扩大至14 亿美元，以延长债务减免的持续时间。
— And together with the World Bank, we are calling for a standstill of debt service to official bilateral creditors for the world’s poorest countries.——我们正与世界银行共同号召官方双边债权国暂停对世界最贫穷国家的债务偿还要求。
I am proud of the staff of the IMF for stepping up in this crisis. And I look forward to the discussions during the Spring Meetings next week on what more we can do.我对基金组织工作人员在危机中挺身而出感到骄傲。我期待在下周的春季会议中讨论我们还可以采取的更多行动。
Conclusion: A Test of Our Humanity结语：人类的考验
Let me conclude with a line from Victor Hugo who once said: “Great perils have this beauty, that they bring to light the fraternity of strangers”.让我以维克多·雨果的一句话作为结尾，他曾说：“重大险境也有好处，它能发掘陌生人之间的情谊”。
It is this common threat that brings us all together, to harness the greatest strengths of our humanity—solidarity, courage, creativity, and compassion. We don’t know yet how our economies and way of life will change, but we do know we will come out of this crisis more resilient. 正是这个共同的威胁让我们凝聚起来，并利用人类最强大的力量——团结、勇气、创造力和同情心。我们的经济和生活方式将如何变化尚不可知，但我们知道，我们将度过危机并变得更加坚韧。
Thank you very much. 非常感谢。
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发表于 2021-11-7 09:21:26