【经济专题双语】国际货币基金组织 2021年10月《全球金融稳定报告》概要

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GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT OCTOBER 2021

《全球金融稳定报告》 2021年10月

COVID-19, CRYPTO, AND CLIMATE

新冠疫情、加密资产和气候变化

NAVIGATING CHALLENGING TRANSITIONS

实现艰难的转型



图源：国际货币基金组织英文网站

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

概要

Overall Assessment: Where Do We Stand?

总体评估：全球金融稳定状况如何？

As the world continues to navigate the global pandemic, financial stability risks have been contained so far, reflecting ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support and the rebound of the global economy this year. While financial conditions have eased further in advanced economies, on net, the sense of optimism that had propelled markets in the first half of the year faded somewhat over the summer. Investors have become increasingly concerned about the economic outlook amid rising virus infections and greater uncertainty about the strength of the recovery, particularly in emerging markets. In late September, concerns that inflationary pressures may be more persistent than initially anticipated have pushed nominal yields higher, in some countries entirely reversing their earlier moves. Despite some improvements since the April 2021 Global Financial Stability Report, financial vulnerabilities continue to be elevated in a number of sectors, masked in part by massive policy stimulus. Policymakers are confronted with a challenging trade-off: maintaining near-term support for the global economy while preventing unintended consequences and medium-term financial stability risks. A prolonged period of extremely easy financial conditions, while needed to sustain the economic recovery, may result in overly stretched asset valuations and could fuel financial vulnerabilities. Some warning signs—for example, increased financial risk-taking and rising fragilities in the nonbank financial institutions sector—point to a deterioration in the underlying financial stability foundations. If left unchecked, these vulnerabilities may evolve into structural legacy problems, putting medium-term growth at risk and testing the resilience of the global financial system.

全世界仍然处在新冠疫情中，而到目前为止，金融稳定风险得到了较好控制，这既反映了当局正在提供的货币和财政政策支持，也体现了今年全球经济的反弹。总体上看，发达经济体的融资环境已变得更加宽松，但在今夏，上半年推动市场上涨的乐观情绪已在一定程度上有所消退。鉴于感染人数持续增加以及复苏力度的不确定性上升（新兴市场尤为如此），投资者对经济前景的担忧日益上升。9 月下旬，市场担心通胀压力可能比最初预想的更为持久，这导致市场名义利率上升，其中一些国家的涨幅已完全超过了此前跌幅。虽然自 2021 年 4 月《全球金融稳定报告》发布以来金融稳定有所改善，但一些部门仍存在严重的金融脆弱性，而大规模政策刺激部分掩盖了这些问题。政策制定者面临困难的权衡抉择：他们既要在短期内为全球经济持续提供支持，又要防范意外状况和中期金融稳定风险。维持经济复苏需要在较长时间保持极度宽松的融资环境，但这可能导致资产估值过高，使金融脆弱性加剧。一些令人警惕的迹象已经出现，如金融风险承担行为增加、非银行金融机构部门脆弱性加剧等， 这表明金融稳定的底层基础正在恶化。如不加以控制，这些脆弱性问题可能演变成结构性的遗留问题——这将危及中期经济增长，给全球金融体系的抗风险能力带来考验。

Progress since the April 2021 Global Financial Stability Report

自 2021 年 4 月《全球金融稳定报告》发布以来的进展

Financial conditions have eased further, on net, inadvanced economies, buoyed by expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy and rising risk asset valuations. By contrast, financial conditions have changed little, on balance, in emerging markets, as monetary policy tightening in response to inflation pressure in some countries has offset gains in risk asset prices (Figure 1).

在货币政策将维持宽松、风险资产估值将上升的市场预期推动下，发达经济体的融资环境总体上已变得更加宽松。相比之下，新兴市场的融资环境总体上变化不大，一些国家为应对通胀压力收紧了货币政策，这抵消了风险资产价格的上涨（图 1）。

Corporate balance sheets have strengthened overall. A feared substantial pickup in bankruptcies has not materialized, thanks to targeted fiscal support and unprecedented monetary policy support. Revenues have risen, with profitability surpassing pre-pandemic levels in several economies (Figure 2). Credit quality in speculative-grade bond markets has continued to strengthen, with default rates expected to remain low.

企业部门的资产负债表总体有所改善。得益于定向财政支持和空前的货币政策支持，企业部门并未出现人们所担心的破产激增的情况。企业收入有所增加，一些经济体的企业盈利能力已经超过了疫情前水平（图 2）。投机级债券市场的信用质量持续改善，违约率预计将保持在较低水平。

Household financial positions have improved and appear to be stronger than they were during the global financial crisis. Households have benefited from lower interest rates and support for income and interest costs, including debt payment moratoria in some countries. Debt service ratios have fallen in many countries, reducing the risk of defaults on mortgage and other consumer loans (Figure 3).

家庭部门的财务状况有所改善，且似乎好于全球金融危机时期。较低的利率以及针对收入和利息成本的支持措施（包括一些国家采取的延期偿债措施），都使得家庭部门受益。许多国家家庭部门的偿债比已有所下降，这缓解了按揭抵押贷款和其他消费贷款的违约风险（图 3）。

In emerging and frontier market economies, the outlook for portfolio flows has improved, boosted by the ongoing economic recovery and robust global risk sentiment, even though local currency debt flows have not recovered from the first-quarter weakness. Hard currency issuance has rebounded strongly, with many lower-rated issuers returning to capital markets (Figure 4).

在经济持续复苏和全球风险情绪走强的推动下，新兴和前沿市场经济体的证券投资流动前景有所改善，虽然其本币债流动尚未从一季度的疲态中恢复。硬通货债券的发行量强劲反弹，许多评级较低的发行人重返资本市场（图 4）。

With a solid global capital position, the global banking sector has continued to play a crucial role in supporting the flow of credit to the economy. With the exception of a weak tail in some countries, banks have remained resilient, reflecting years of capital buildup following the global financial crisis reforms and continued unprecedented monetary and fiscal policy support.

全球银行部门的资本状况稳健，继续在支持信贷流向实体经济中发挥着关键作用。除了部分国家的尾部银行比较薄弱外，其他银行的抗风险能力依然较强，这反映了全球金融危机后多年改革使银行积累的资本，以及空前货币和财政政策支持的延续。

The global financial sector—and the investment fund sector in particular—can play a crucial role in catalyzing private investment to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy and mitigate climate change (Chapter 3). With investor awareness of catastrophic events rising in the wake of the pandemic, flows into sustainable funds, and into climate funds in particular, have surged since early 2020 (Figure 5). Inflows support climate stewardship and issuance of securities by “green” firms. Sustainable investors may also offer financial stability benefits as they tend to be less sensitive to short-term returns. However, the sustainable fund sector remains small ($3.6 trillion in assets under management at the end of 2020, of which only $130 billion is in climate funds).

全球金融部门（尤其是投资基金部门）可以在促进私人投资、加快低碳经济转型以及减缓气候变化方面发挥关键作用（第三章）。疫情暴发后，随着投资者对灾难性事件的意识不断增强，流入可持续基金（尤其是气候基金）的资金自 2020 年初以来大幅增加（图 5）。这些资金为“绿色”企业的气候管理活动和证券发行活动提供了支持。可持续投资者的存在可能也有利于金融稳定，这是因为他们对短期回报的敏感度较低。但可持续基金部门的规模依然较小（截至 2020 年底，其管理资产规模为 3.6 万亿美元，其中，气候基金仅 1300 亿美元）。

However, Risks Remain amid Still-Elevated Financial Vulnerabilities

尽管如此，金融脆弱性依然较高，金融稳定风险尚存

After declining notably through the summer, global long- term yields have risen in late September, in some countries entirely reversing their earlier moves, on concerns that price pressures may be more persistent than initially anticipated (Figure 6).

全球长期利率在今夏大幅下降，随后于 9 月下旬有所回升，一些国家的涨幅已完全超过了此前的跌幅，原因是市场担忧价格压力可能比最初预想的更为持久（图 6）。

While investors still expect recent price pressures to moderate and then gradually subside, concerns about inflation risks have intensified recently in financial markets (Figure 7). In addition to the recent rise in energy and commodity prices, investors have highlighted the possibility that supply chain disruptions and shortages of labor and materials may be more persistent than currently anticipated, feeding into wage dynamics and eventually unmooring inflation expectations.

虽然投资者仍然预计近期的价格压力将会缓和并逐渐消退，但近期金融市场对通胀风险的担忧有所加剧（图7）。除近期能源和大宗商品价格上涨外，投资者还强调，供应链的扰动以及劳动力和原材料短缺可能比当前预想的更为持久，这将影响工资走势并最终推升通胀预期。

Asset valuations appear to be stretched in some market segments. Despite recent market turbulence, equity prices have risen further, on net, since the April 2021 GFSR, boosted by accommodative monetary policy and strong earnings. However, equity price misalignments (relative to fundamentals-based values) have remained elevated in most markets (Figure 8). Credit spreads have narrowed to below pre-pandemic levels. House prices have risen rapidly in many countries, reflecting, among other factors, the improved outlook, policy support, and shifting household preferences.

部分市场似乎存在资产估值过高的现象。自 2021 年 4 月《全球金融稳定报告》发布以来，在宽松货币政策和企业强劲盈利的推动下，股票价格总体进一步上涨，尽管近期市场也出现了动荡。不过，大多数市场依然存在严重的股价失调（股价与基于基本面计算的价值不相匹配）（图 8）。信用利差有所收窄，已低于疫情前水平。许多国家的房价快速上涨，这反映了经济前景改善、政策支持延续和家庭偏好转变等多种因素。

Emerging and frontier markets continue to face large financing needs. Local currency government bond yields have increased in many countries on the back of domestic factors (higher inflation and fiscal concerns). fte late-September increase in the US Treasury yields may exert additional pres- sure going forward, leading to higher funding costs for many countries. Inflation pressure has led many central banks to adopt a tighter monetary policy stance. fte outlook for capital flows has improved, boosted by the ongoing recovery and robust global risk appetite. Monetary conditions are still broadly accommodative, with deeply negative real rates. But there is a risk that real rates may rise significantly in coming years (Figure 9). A sudden change in the monetary policy stance of advanced economies may result in a sharp tightening of financial conditions, adversely affecting capital flows and exacerbating pressures in countries facing debt sustain- ability concerns.

新兴和前沿市场经济体仍面临巨大的融资需求。受国内因素（通胀上行和财政问题）影响，许多国家的本币政府债收益率有所上升。9 月底美国国债收益率的上升可能给未来带来更多压力，造成许多国家融资成本上升。面对通胀压力，多家央行已收紧货币政策立场。在经济持续复苏和全球风险偏好走强的推动下，资本流动的前景有所改善。总体上看，货币环境依然宽松，实际利率深陷于负区间，但仍存在实际利率在未来几年飙升的风险（图9）。发达经济体货币政策立场的突然转变可能导致融资环境急剧收紧，这将对资本流动产生不利影响，并使存在债务可持续性问题的国家面临更沉重的压力（图 10）。

Despite improvements during the recovery, financial vulnerabilities remain elevated in several sectors. Among nonfinancial firms, the recovery remains uneven across countries, sectors, and firm sizes. Solvency risks continue to be elevated in sectors hit hardest by the pandemic (for example, transportation and services) and in small firms (Figure 10). In China, credit conditions have tightened, particularly for firms with weak credit ratings and in provinces with weaker public finances.

尽管金融脆弱性问题在复苏期间有所改善，但一些部门的金融脆弱性依然严峻。不同国家、不同部门、不同规模的非金融企业的复苏仍不均衡。受疫情打击最严重的部门（如交通运输和服务部门）和小企业仍存在严重的偿付能力风险（图 11）。中国的信贷环境已经收紧，这对于信用评级较低的企业和公共财政比较薄弱的省份而言尤其如此。

Vulnerabilities in investment funds unmasked by the “dash for cash” in March 2020 remain and risks are rising at some other nonbank financial institutions as they reach for yield to meet nominal return targets. For example, life insurance companies still face elevated asset-liability duration mismatches in many jurisdictions. Seeking to enhance their return on investment, US and European life insurers have increased their share of lower-quality bonds. In the current environment of persistently low interest rates and ample liquidity, greater use of financial leverage to boost returns could prompt volatility in financial markets.

投资基金在 2020 年 3 月“争夺现金”事件中暴露出的脆弱性问题依然存在，而其他一些非银行金融机构为实现名义收益率目标而追逐收益，风险也在上升。例如，在许多国家，寿险公司资产负债期限错配问题依然十分严重。为尽可能提高投资收益率，美国和欧洲的寿险公司增加了较低质量债券的持有比例。在利率长期走低和流动性充裕的当前环境下，更多使用金融杠杆来提高收益率的做法可能增加金融市场的波动性。

In the banking sector, loan underwriting standards remain restrictive in many countries. According to bank loan officer surveys, this posture is expected to persist, with risks to the credit outlook as the main constraint to loan growth. A slowdown in international bank lending may pose additional downside risks to many emerging market economies (Figure 11).

在银行部门，许多国家的贷款承销标准仍很严格。对银行信贷人员的调查显示，这种情况预计将会持续下去， 而信贷前景的风险是制约贷款增长的主要因素。跨国银行贷款增速放缓可能给许多新兴市场经济体带来更多下行风险。

The crypto ecosystem continues its rapid growth (Figure 12), presenting new opportunities and challenges (Chapter 2). Crypto asset exchanges pose several operational and financial integrity risks through their cross-border operations. Investor protection risks loom large for crypto assets and decentralized finance. For example, stablecoins have generally poor disclosures and can be subject to runs if their reserves come into question. In emerging markets, the advent of crypto assets may be accelerating dollarization and eroding the effectiveness of existing exchange restrictions and capital control management measures. Increased trading of crypto assets by emerging market users can potentially lead to destabilizing capital flows. Emerging market and developing economies faced with these risks should prioritize strengthening macro policies and consider the benefits of issuing central bank digital currencies. And globally, policymakers should work together through the G20 Cross Border Payments Roadmap to make cross-border payments faster, cheaper, more transparent, and inclusive.

加密资产生态系统持续快速增长（图 12），这带来了新的机遇和挑战（第二章）。加密资产交易所跨境运营，这带来了若干运营风险和金融诚信风险。对于加密资产和去中心化金融而言，投资者保护风险十分突出。例如，稳定币的信息披露一般较差，如果其准备金出现问题，就可能引发挤兑。在新兴市场，加密资产的出现可能会加快美元化进程，降低现有汇兑限制和资本管制管理措施的有效性。新兴市场用户的加密资产交易增加，可能会破坏资本流动的稳定性。面临上述风险的新兴市场和发展中经济体应重点加强宏观政策，并考虑发行央行数字货币的好处。在全球范围内，政策制定者应通过《G20 跨境支付路线图》开展合作，使跨境支付速度更快、成本更低、更加透明、更具包容性。

Policy Recommendations

政策建议

While policy support continues to be key to sustaining the ongoing recovery, it should be tailored to country circum- stances given the mixed pace of the economic recovery across countries. Central banks should provide clear guidance about their future policy stance to prevent an abrupt tightening of financial conditions. If price pressures turn out to be more persistent than currently expected, monetary authorities should act decisively to prevent an unmooring of inflation expectations. Fiscal policy should continue to support vulnerable firms and individuals. Given policy space, fiscal measures should be targeted and tailored to country characteristics and needs.

政策支持仍然是维持当前经济复苏的关键，但鉴于各国复苏步伐快慢不一，当局应根据自身国情对政策进行调整。央行应就未来的货币政策立场提供明确的指引，防止融资环境突然收紧。如果价格压力实际上比当前预期的更加持久，那么货币当局就应果断行动，防止通胀预期变化。财政政策应继续为脆弱的企业和个人提供支持。考虑到政策空间有限，财政措施应具有针对性，并根据各国特点和需求做出调整。

In light of the possible need for prolonged policy support to ensure a sustainable and inclusive recovery, policymakers should act decisively to address the potential unintended consequences of unprecedented measures taken during the pandemic. Policymakers should tighten selected macroprudential tools to tackle pockets of elevated vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Due to possible lags between the activation and impact of such tools, they should take early action. If such tools are not available—for example, in the nonbank financial intermediary sector—policymakers should urgently develop them. Given the challenges to designing and operationalizing macroprudential tools within existing frameworks, policymakers should also consider building buffers elsewhere to protect the financial system. In particular, policymakers should urgently address vulnerabilities in investment funds through enhanced prudential supervision and regulation to raise ex ante resilience against liquidity risks. Critically, the global nature of the investment fund business makes it imperative that further reform be achieved on an internationally coordinated basis through the Financial Stability Board.

为实现可持续和包容性的经济复苏，可能需要长期提供政策支持，有鉴于此，政策制定者应当果断行动，消除疫情中各种空前措施可能产生的意外影响。政策制定者应收紧部分宏观审慎工具，以此应对一些领域的严峻脆弱性问题，同时避免融资环境普遍收紧。此类工具在实施后到生效前可能存在一定时滞，因此应提早采取行动。如果在一些领域（如非银行金融中介部门）缺乏此类工具，那么政策制定者应尽快予以开发。鉴于在现有框架内设计和运用宏观审慎工具面临种种困难，政策制定者应考虑在其他领域建立缓冲，以保护金融体系。尤其是，政策制定者尽快应对投资基金的脆弱性问题，为此，他们应加强审慎监管，提高投资基金在事前抵御流动性风险的能力。重要的是，投资基金的业务具有全球性，因此各国必须通过金融稳定理事会，在国际协作的基础上进一步推进有关改革。

Emerging and frontier markets remain exposed to the risk of a sudden tightening in external financing conditions. They should, while leveraging the historic general special drawing rights allocation, rebuild buffers as appropriate and implement structural reforms to insulate themselves from the damage from capital flow reversals and abrupt increases in funding costs.

新兴和前沿市场经济体仍然面临外部融资环境突然收紧的风险。在充分利用本轮历史性的特别提款权普遍分配的同时，它们应酌情重建缓冲并实施结构性改革，防止自身遭受资本流动逆转和融资成本突然上升的损害。

Policymakers in emerging markets must also address the challenges posed by digital dollarization. They should reverse or avert dollarization by strengthening the credibility of monetary policy, safeguarding central bank independence, and maintaining a sound fiscal position. Effective legal and regulatory measures will be necessary to disincentivize foreign currency use. Adequate frameworks for crypto asset service providers must be established, with coordination among national regulators. More generally, countries must reconsider capital flow restrictions in a more digital world, and cross-border collaboration and cooperation are needed to address the technological, legal, regulatory, and supervisory challenges (see Chapter 2).

新兴市场的政策制定者还须应对数字美元化带来的种种挑战。他们应当提升货币政策的公信力、维护央行独立性并维持稳健的财政状况，从而逆转或避免美元化。他们也必须采取有效的法律和监管措施，以抑制外币的使用。必须针对加密资产服务提供商制定适当的框架，而国内各监管机构应就此展开协调。更普遍而言，各国必须重新考虑全球数字化程度加深下的资本流动限制措施，并需通过跨境协调合作来应对技术、法律和监管方面的挑战（见第二章）。

To foster the growth of the sustainable fund sector and mitigate potential financial stability risks stemming from the transition to a green economy, policymakers should urgently strengthen the global climate information architecture (data, disclosures, sustainable finance classifications). Once this architecture is in place, they could also consider tools to channel savings toward transition-enhancing funds (such as financial incentives for investment in climate funds). Finally, they should conduct scenario analysis and stress testing of the investment fund sector to mitigate potential financial stability risks from the transition.

为了促进可持续基金部门的增长、降低绿色经济转型可能带来的金融稳定风险，政策制定者应尽快完善全球气候信息架构（包括数据、信息披露、绿色分类法等方面）。他们还应研究相关工具（例如，为气候导向型基金的投资者提供资金激励），推动储蓄流向那些促进转型的投资基金。最后，他们应当对投资基金部门开展情景分析和压力测试，以降低转型可能带来的金融稳定风险。

来源：国际货币基金组织中英文网站

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