【ICDPASO】国际货币基金组织发表评论,呼吁抵制地缘经济分裂

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国际商事争端预防与解决组织



2022年5月23日，国际货币基金组织(IMF)发布评论，认为地缘经济分裂风险急剧上升，社会应对风险能力削弱，全球一体化进程受阻。贸易、技术标准和安全方面的紧张局势持续加剧，损害了经济增长和人们对当前全球经济体系的信任。评论提出，为应对一体化逆转危机，需要确定四大优先事项。

乌克兰冲突使新冠肺炎疫情危机进一步恶化，经济增长放缓，通货膨胀加剧。居高不下的粮食和能源价格给全世界带来沉重负担。融资环境收紧进一步给重债国家、公司和家庭带来了压力。在持续受到局势扰动的情况下，各国正在重新评估全球供应链。这些变化导致地缘经济分裂的风险急剧上升。

根据国际货币基金组织的研究，仅贸易政策的不确定性就导致2019年全球国内生产总值下降了近1%。自乌克兰冲突爆发以来，已有约30个国家限制了粮食、能源和其他重要大宗商品的贸易。

供应链重构和投资壁垒升高可能会使发展中国家更难向发达国家出售产品，也使它们更难获取技术和积累财富。发达经济体也必须为同样的产品支付更多的费用，从而加剧通胀。由于失去了共同进行创新开发的合作伙伴，发达经济体的生产率也将受到影响。根据国际货币基金组织的研究，仅技术分裂就可能导致许多国家的GDP损失5%左右。

为防止以上情形进一步恶化，评论指出，要恢复对全球体系的信任，需要确定四大优先事项。首先，巩固贸易以提高韧性，促进进出口多元化程度，提供支持性政策，改善营商环境。第二，进一步共同推动解决债务问题。由于约60%的低收入国家存在严重的债务脆弱性，恢复债务可持续性将吸引新的投资，刺激包容性增长。第三，实现跨境支付现代化。各国可合作开发一个全球公共数字平台，打造具有明确规则的全新支付基础设施。第四，应对气候变化这一生存挑战，弥合目标与政策之间的差距。

此外，多边机构也可以在重塑全球合作和抵制分裂方面发挥关键作用，包括进一步强化治理，确保反映不断变化的全球经济动态。多边机构还可以利用其号召能力，最大限度地使用其多元化的工具箱。例如，国际货币基金组织可以通过其一系列金融工具、双边和全球监督以及对所有成员国的公平做法来提供帮助。

【ICDPASO】IMF Issued a Commentary to Call for Resisting Geoeconomic Fragmentation

On May 23, 2022, International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a commentary on the sharp rise in the risk of geoeconomic fragmentation, the weakened capacity of societies to cope with risk and the hindrance of global integration processes. Tensions over trade, technology standards and security have been growing, undermining the growth and trust in the current global economic system. According to the commentary, four priorities need to be considered to address the disintegration crisis.

The conflict in Ukraine has compounded the Covid-19 pandemic, dragging down growth, and pushing up inflation. High food and energy prices are weighing heavily on households around the world. Tightening financial conditions are putting further pressure on highly indebted nations, companies, and families. And countries are re-evaluating global supply chains amid persistent disruptions. All these changes have caused the sharply increased risk of geoeconomic fragmentation.

Uncertainty around trade policies alone reduced global gross domestic product in 2019 by nearly 1 percent, according to IMF research. And since the war in Ukraine started, around 30 countries have restricted trade in food, energy, and other key commodities.

Reconfigured supply chains and higher barriers to investment could make it more difficult for developing nations to sell to the rich world, gain know-how, and build wealth. Advanced economies would also have to pay more for the same products, stoking inflation. And productivity would suffer as they lost partners who currently co-innovate with them. IMF research estimates technological fragmentation alone can lead to losses of 5 percent of GDP for many countries.

To prevent further deterioration of the above situation, the comments pointed out that to restore trust in the global system, four priorities need to be considered. First, strengthen trade to increase resilience, diversify imports and exports, and supply supportive policies to improve business environment. Second, step up joint efforts to deal with debt. With roughly 60 percent of low-income countries with significant debt vulnerabilities, a return to debt sustainability will draw new investment and spur inclusive growth. Third, modernize cross-border payments. Countries can work together to develop a global public digital platform - a new piece of payment infrastructure with clear rules. Fourth, confront climate change - the existential challenge, closing the gap between ambition and policy.

In addition, multilateral institutions can also play a key role in reshaping global cooperation and resisting fragmentation, including further strengthening their governance to ensure they reflect changing global economic dynamics. Multilateral institutions can also leverage their convening power,  and maximize use of their diversified toolkits. For example, IMF can help with its range of financial instruments, bilateral and global surveillance and even-handed approach across its membership.

国际商事争端预防与解决组织

International Commercial Dispute

Prevention and Settlement Organization

（ICDPASO）

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作者：国际商事争端预防与解决组织