会议预告 | 2022年国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望报告》发布会(10月27日)

孙悟空748

《世界经济展望报告》是由国际货币基金组织（IMF）研究人员撰写的经济概览，着重分析世界宏观经济形势并对经济前景进行预测，每年春季和秋季发布。中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）作为国际货币基金组织的长期稳定合作伙伴，每年定期联合发布该报告，共同致力于全球经济形势和货币金融领域的研究和探讨。

2022年秋季“IMF《世界经济展望报告》发布会”将于10月27日在北京举行，本次会议由国际货币基金组织驻华代表处和中国人民大学国际货币研究所联合主办，植信投资研究院合办。IMF驻华首席代表Steven Barnett、副代表李鑫，IMF货币与资本市场部高级金融专家Torsten Ehlers、Charlotte Gardes，植信投资首席经济学家兼研究院院长连平将出席会议并发表主题演讲。

The Launch of IMF World Economic Outlook 2022 will be held on October 27, 09:00am to 11:50am. The event is jointly organized by IMF Resident Representative Office in China and International Monetary Institute (IMI) at Renmin University of China, co-organized by ZhiXin Investment Research Institute. Mr. Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative of IMF in China, Mr. Li Xin, Deputy Resident Representative of IMF in China, Mr. Torsten Ehlers and Ms. Charlotte Gardes, Senior Financial Sector Expert of Monetary and Capital Markets Department at Global Market Analysis Division of IMF, Mr. Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Dean of ZhiXin Investment Research Institute will deliver keynote speeches on the world economic outlook.

会议信息

时间：2022年10月27日（周四）09:00-11:50  

主办：国际货币基金组织驻华代表处

         中国人民大学国际货币研究所

合办：植信投资研究院

主持：张之骧，中国人民银行国际司原司长、中国驻IMF原执行董事

Basic Information

Time:

09:00am-11:50am, Thursday, October 27, 2022

Organized by:

IMF Resident Representative Office in China

International Monetary Institute (IMI), Renmin University of China

Co-organized by:

ZhiXin Investment Research Institute

Chaired by:

Mr. Zhang Zhixiang, Former Director General of International Department of PBoC, Former IMF Executive Director for China

会议议程

09:00—09:15  开场致辞

钱宗鑫   中国人民大学财政金融学院副院长

09:15—09:35  主题演讲I

Steven Barnett   IMF驻华首席代表

09:35—09:55  主题演讲II

李  鑫   IMF驻华副代表

09:55—10:15  主题演讲III

Torsten Ehlers   IMF货币与资本市场部高级金融专家

Charlotte Gardes   IMF货币与资本市场部金融专家

10:15—10:35  主题演讲IV

连  平   植信投资首席经济学家兼研究院院长

10:35—11:35  嘉宾研讨

主持人

钟正生   平安证券首席经济学家

研讨嘉宾（以姓氏拼音为序）

Steven Barnett   IMF驻华首席代表

高海红   中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员、国际金融研究中心主任

李  鑫   IMF驻华副代表

瞿  强   中国人民大学财政金融学院教授

11:35—11:50  Q&A

Agenda

09:00—09:15   Opening Remarks

Prof. Qian Zongxin, Associate Dean, School of Finance, Renmin University

09:15—09:35   Presentation I

Mr. Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative of IMF in China

09:35—09:55   Presentation II

Mr. Li Xin, Deputy Resident Representative of IMF in China

09:55—10:15   Presentation III

Mr. Torsten Ehlers, Senior Financial Sector Expert, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Global Market Analysis Division, IMF

Ms. Charlotte Gardes, Financial Sector Expert, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Global Market Analysis Division, IMF

10:15—10:35   Presentation IV

Mr. Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Dean, ZhiXin Investment Research Institute

10:35—11:35   Panel Discussion

Moderator

Mr. Zhong Zhengsheng, Chief Economist of Pingan Securities

Discussants (in alphabetical order of surname)

Mr. Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative of IMF in China

Ms. Gao Haihong, Director of International Finance Research Center, CASS

Mr. Li Xin, Deputy Resident Representative of IMF in China

Prof. Qu Qiang, Professor, School of Finance, Renmin University of China

11:35—11:50   Q&A

主讲嘉宾简介

Bios of keynote speakers



Steven Barnett

IMF驻华首席代表

Barnett先生现任国际货币基金组织（IMF）驻华首席代表，此前他担任IMF副总裁顾问。他职业生涯的大部分时间都在研究亚洲经济，曾任IMF亚太部中国处处长，IMF亚太区域办公室（东京）助理主任，IMF驻华副代表和驻泰国代表。1997年加入IMF之前，他在马里兰大学获得经济学博士学位。他拥有斯坦福大学经济学学士学位，斯坦福大学俄罗斯与东欧研究硕士学位。

Mr. Barnett recently became the International Monetary Fund’s Senior Resident Representative for China. Prior to that, he worked as an Advisor to the Deputy Managing Director.  For much of his career, however, he covered Asia. His positions included Chief of the China Division in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, Assistant Director at the IMF Office for Asia and the Pacific in Tokyo, Resident Representative to China, and Resident Representative to Thailand. Prior to joining the IMF in 1997, he earned his PhD in economics from the University of Maryland. He has a Bachelor's degree in economics from Stanford University as well as a Master's degree in Russian and East European Studies, also from Stanford.



李鑫

IMF驻华副代表

李鑫是国际货币基金组织（IMF）驻华副代表。此前，他在IMF总部亚太局日本处和马来西亚处担任经济学家，其工作专注于宏观经济预测、分析一国的内部和外部失衡、以及宏观结构性问题。同时，他还负责了非常规货币及财政政策、公司储蓄率、劳动力移民和非正规经济等多个研究项目。加入亚太部之前，他曾在IMF的风险管理办公室担任经济学家，负责建立风险管理工具并监控IMF核心业务所面临的风险。李鑫获北京大学物理学学士学位和经济学学士双学位，以及美国莱斯大学经济学博士学位。

Mr. Xin Li is the IMF Deputy Resident Representative for China. Previously, he was a desk economist on Japan and Malaysia in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department based in Washington D.C., where he focused on macroeconomic forecasting, internal and external imbalance, and macro-structural issues while conducting research on unconventional monetary and fiscal policies, corporate saving, migrant labor, and informal economy. Prior to that, he worked as an economist in the IMF’s Office of Risk Management, building risk management tools and monitoring core risks faced by the IMF. He earned his Ph.D. in economics from Rice University; he also holds bachelor’s degrees in physics and economics (double major) from Peking University.



Torsten Ehlers

IMF货币与资本市场部高级金融专家

Torsten Ehlers自2021年9月起担任IMF货币和资本市场部高级金融专家。他参与撰写IMF《全球金融稳定报告》，研究领域为可持续金融、国际银行和衍生品市场。加入IMF之前，他在国际清算银行巴塞尔总部和香港代表处工作了10年。他拥有瑞士苏黎世大学经济学博士学位、英国华威大学经济学硕士学位和德国多特蒙德大学工商管理硕士学位。

Torsten Ehlers is a Senior Financial Sector Expert at the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department in Washington DC since September 2021. He is a contributor to the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report flagship publication and specializes in sustainable finance, international banking, and derivatives markets. He is seconded from the Bank for International Settlements, where he has been working for 10 years both at the headquarters in Basel and its representative office in Hong Kong in various capacities. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Zurich, Switzerland, a Masters in Economics from Warwick University, UK, and a Masters in Business Administration from the University of Dortmund, Germany.



Charlotte Gardes

IMF货币与资本市场部金融专家

Charlotte Gardes是IMF货币和资本市场部金融专家，主要研究领域为新兴市场和发展中经济体的气候融资政策、监测和技术咨询。在2021年9月加入IMF之前，她是法国财政部负责可持续金融政策和气候风险的副主管，负责谈判和起草欧盟和法国在这一领域的法规，并参加了法国的气候压力测试演习。她拥有巴黎政治学院、索邦大学和巴黎第二阿萨斯大学宏观金融经济学和证券法硕士学位，目前在巴黎攻读环境与金融经济学博士学位。

Charlotte Gardes is a financial sector expert in the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, focusing on climate finance policy, surveillance and technical advice, primarily in emerging markets and developing economies. Prior to joining the IMF in September 2021, she was Deputy Head of Unit in the French Treasury, in charge of sustainable finance policy and climate risk, and notably negotiated and drafted numerous EU and French regulations in this area, and participated to France’s climate stress-test exercise. Charlotte holds Master's degrees from Sciences Po Paris, the Sorbonne University and Paris- II Assas University in macrofinancial economics and securities law. She is currently a Ph.D. student in environmental and financial economics in Paris.



连平

植信投资首席经济学家兼研究院院长

连平，教授，植信投资首席经济学家兼研究院院长；华东师范大学经济与管理学部名誉主任、博士生导师；享受国务院政府特殊津贴。目前为国务院金融稳定发展委员会特聘专家、国家发展改革委员会价格监测中心特聘专家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、亚洲金融智库专家、上海市经济学会副会长、复旦大学管理学院特聘教授，2007-2019年任交通银行首席经济学家、曾任中国银行业协会行业发展研究委员会主任、中国金融40人论坛常务理事和特邀成员，多次出席党和国家领导人主持召开的专家会议。主要研究领域涉及宏观经济运行与政策、国际金融和商业银行。发表文章600余篇，出版著作18部，主持完成国家级、省部级以上研究课题30余项。

Lian Ping, professor, chief economist of Zhixin Investment and president of Zhixin Research Institute. Honorary Director of the Faculty of Economics and Management of East China Normal University. Doctoral supervisor. Entitled to the State Council Special Allowance.

Professor Lian is a special-appointed expert for both the Financial Stability and Development Committee and Department of Price of the National Development and Reform Commission. He is also the director of China Chief Economist Forum, expert of the Asia Financial Think Tank, vice President of the Shanghai Economist Association and distinguished professor of Fudan University School of Management. From 2007 to 2019, Professor Lian was the chief economist of Bank of Communications. He is also the former chairman of The Industry Development Research Committee of China Banking Association. He is also an executive council member and guest member of China Finance 40 Forum. Professor Lian has attended multiple expert meetings held by Party and state leaders.

Professor Lian’s research area includes macroeconomic operation and policy, international finance and commercial banking. Professor Lian has published over 600 articles and 18 books. He has led over 30 national level, provincial and ministerial level or above studies.

背景介绍

Background



2022年10月IMF《世界经济展望报告》

通胀与不确定性



全球经济活动普遍放缓且比预期更为严重，通胀处于几十年来的最高水平。各国面临着生活成本危机，多数地区的金融环境不断收紧，俄乌冲突和新冠疫情都对经济前景造成了严重影响。全球经济增长率预计将从2021年的6.0%下降至2022年的3.2%和2023年的2.7%。如果不包括全球金融危机和新冠疫情最严重阶段，那么这将是2001年以来最为疲弱的增长表现。

全球通胀预计将从2021年的4.7%上升到2022年的8.8%，但2023年和2024年将分别降至6.5%和4.1%。货币政策应继续以恢复价格稳定为目标，而财政政策应着眼于缓解生活成本压力，同时保持与货币政策相一致的足够偏紧的总体立场。结构性改革能够提高生产率和缓解供给约束，从而为抗击通胀提供进一步的支持，而多边合作对于加快绿色能源转型和防止分裂至关重要。



IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2022.

Inflation and Uncertainty



Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.

参会人员

Participants

因疫情防控要求，本次会议仅限定向邀请嘉宾参会，谢绝外部报名。会议成果将于会后发布，感谢您的关注！

To meet the requirement on Covid-19 containment, this event is subject to the participation of invited guests only. The outcomes of the meeting will be published subsequently. Thank you for your attention.

版面编辑｜曹涵琦

责任编辑｜李锦璇、蒋旭

监制｜朱霜霜、董熙君

近期热文

RUC之声｜李戎等：地方政府债务风险的再思考

IMI工作论文｜庄毓敏等：流动性监管、银行稳健性与货币政策传导

锐评｜IMI专家解读二十大报告：坚持发展与开放，迈向中国式现代化

王永利：从2019年以来金融数据能看到什么

IMF2022年10月世界经济预测

作者：IMI财经观察