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The International Monetary Fund hasupgraded its growth forecast for China and India, predicting that the twocountries would account for almost half of global growth this year.国际货币基金组织上调了对中国和印度的增长预期，预计这两个国家将占到今年全球增长的近一半。China’s economy is expected to grow 5% thisyear, higher than the its April projection of 4.6% but lower than the 5.2%expansion in 2023, the IMF said Tuesday.国际货币基金组织周二表示，预计今年中国经济将增长5%，高于4月份预测的4.6%，但低于2023年5.2%的增速。GDP in the world’s second largest economy is expected to further slow in 2025 to 4.5%, and be on a downward trajectory to 3.3% by 2029, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook in July.*trajectory /trəˈdʒektəri/ 轨道根据国际货币基金组织7月发布的最新《世界经济展望》，预计到2025年世界第二大经济体的国内生产总值将进一步放缓至4.5%，到2029年将降至3 .3%。The rosier forecast for 2024 was in part due to stronger consumer activity and exports in the first quarter of the year, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF’s chief economist.*rosier /ˈroʊziər/ 更乐观的IMF首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维尔•古林查斯表示，对2024年的预测更为乐观，部分原因是今年第一季度消费活动和出口的增长。“The Chinese economy has grown tremendously in the last 15-20 years, and it’s much less reliant overall on the external sector for its growth than it was maybe 15 years ago or 20 years ago,” he said at a press briefing.*tremendously /trəˈmendəsli/ 巨大的他在新闻发布会上表示:“中国经济在过去15-20年里取得了巨大增长，或许与15年前或20年前相比，中国经济增长对外部部门的整体依赖程度大大降低。”“By the very fact that China is also bigger, it means it has a bigger footprint in the rest of the world. An increase in the trade surplus might be small from Chinese perspective, but it could be big from the perspective of the rest of the world.”“真正的事实是中国的规模也更大，这意味着它在世界其他地区的影响力更大。从中国的角度来看，贸易顺差的增长可能很小，但从世界其他国家的角度来看，可能很大。”Gourinchas pointed out that those projections were made before China’s latest GDP numbers were released.*projection 预测Gourinchas指出，这些预测是在中国最新的GDP数据发布之前做出的。Ahead of the IMF’s report on Tuesday,Chinese official data showed its economy grew 4.7% year on year in the secondquarter — falling below expectations of 5.1% growth by economists polled byReuters.
在国际货币基金组织周二发布报告之前，中国官方数据显示，第二季度中国经济同比增长4.7%，低于路透社调查经济学家预测的5.1%。“They indicate ... that maybe growth inChina — in particular consumer confidence and problems in the property sector —are still lingering,” Gourinchas warned. “This is something we flag in our dataas a risk to the Chinese economy. And that seems to be perhaps materializing.”*materializing 实现“它们表明……也许中国的增长——特别是消费者信心和房地产行业的问题——仍在持续。”“我们在数据中指出这是中国经济面临的风险。这似乎正在成为现实。”The IMF said it is optimistic onconsumption returning in the next few years, but falling birth rates willhinder productivity levels, and in turn slow the economic down.国际货币基金组织表示，它对未来几年消费回升持乐观态度，但出生率下降将阻碍生产力水平，从而使经济放缓。
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发表于 2024-7-17 21:04:12