全球经济增速3.2%!国际货币基金组织重磅数据发布,中国和印度成为超级核心!

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国际货币基金组织（IMF）近期发布的声明维持了其对全球经济增长的乐观展望，预测今年全球经济将稳步增长3.2%，而明年则将轻微提速至3.3%。

这一稳健的预测背后，隐藏着IMF首席经济学家Pierre Olivier Gourinchas深刻的见解：“自《世界经济展望》四月版问世以来，全球经济舞台下正悄然酝酿着诸多不可忽视的变革。”



报告深入剖析了全球经济的内在动力，强调主要发达经济体之间的增长步伐正趋于同步，这得益于产出差距的逐步缩小。具体而言，美国经济在历经2023年的高歌猛进后，正面临劳动力市场等关键领域的降温信号，预示着其扩张周期可能步入调整阶段。与此同时，欧元区则有望摆脱去年的低迷态势，迎来复苏的曙光，为全球经济版图增添一抹亮色。

尤为值得注意的是，亚洲新兴市场经济体继续扮演着全球经济增长领头羊的角色。IMF的报告明确指出，印度与中国的经济增长预期均有所上调，两者合力几乎占据了全球增长的半壁江山。

然而，这份辉煌背后也暗藏着隐忧，报告警示未来五年内的增长前景或将趋于疲软，这主要归因于亚洲新兴市场增长势头的放缓。特别是中国，IMF预测其经济增速至2029年将放缓至3.3%，显著低于当前水平，预示着全球经济格局或将迎来新的调整期。



在通胀方面，IMF同样给出了积极的信号。该组织预计，随着全球经济逐步适应后疫情时代的供需变化，今年全球通胀率将从去年的高位6.7%回落至5.9%，有望实现相对平稳的软着陆。

然而，IMF也谨慎地指出，在部分发达经济体，尤其是美国，反通胀的努力正遭遇挑战，风险有所上升，这可能影响全球经济的复苏进程。

IMF进一步分析了当前全球经济面临的两大短期下行风险：一是发达经济体若面临更严峻的通缩挑战，或将迫使包括美联储在内的中央银行维持较高的利率水平更长时间，这不仅会威胁到整体经济增长，还可能加剧美元升值压力，对新兴和发展中经济体造成不利影响；二是公共财政的恶化问题日益凸显，使得许多国家在面对经济波动时更加脆弱，财政挑战的解决变得更为迫切。

此外，IMF还对全球经济政策的不确定性及多边贸易体系的现状表达了深切关注。报告指出，随着越来越多国家采取单边关税或产业政策措施，世界贸易组织规则的遵守情况受到质疑，这不仅可能扭曲贸易和资源分配，还可能引发报复性措施，削弱全球经济增长动力，降低民众生活水平，并给协调应对气候变化等全球性挑战带来更大难度。IMF呼吁各国加强合作，共同维护和完善多边贸易体系，以实现持久和共享的全球繁荣。



The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said global growth projections are unchanged at 3.2% this year and slightly higher at 3.3% for next year.

However, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, writing for the IMF, said that "there have been notable developments beneath the surface since the April World Economic Outlook."

The report noted that growth in major advanced economies is becoming more aligned as output gaps are closing.

For instance, the United States shows increasing signs of cooling, especially in the labor market, after a strong 2023. The euro area, meanwhile, is poised to pick up after a nearly flat performance last year.



Meanwhile, the IMF said that Asia's emerging market economies remain the main engine for the global economy.

It noted that growth in India and China is revised upwards and accounts for almost half of global growth. Yet prospects for the next five years remain weak, largely because of waning momentum in emerging Asia.

"By 2029, growth in China is projected to moderate to 3.3%, well below its current pace," the report said.

IMF noted that, as in its April report, it projects global inflation to slow to 5.9% this year from 6.7% last year, broadly on track for a soft landing. "But in some advanced economies, especially the United States, progress on disinflation has slowed, and risks are to the upside," the IMF said.



"We find that risks remain broadly balanced, but two downside near-term risks have become more prominent: First, further challenges to disinflation in advanced economies could force central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to keep borrowing costs higher for even longer. That would put overall growth at risk, with increased upward pressure on the dollar and harmful spillovers to emerging and developing economies; and second, fiscal challenges need to be tackled more directly."

The report noted that the deterioration in public finances has left many countries more vulnerable than foreseen before the pandemic.

"Unfortunately, economic policy uncertainty extends beyond fiscal considerations," the IMF said. It added that the gradual dismantling of the multilateral trading system is another key concern."



"More countries are now going their own way, imposing unilateral tariffs or industrial policy measures whose compliance with World Trade Organization rules is questionable at best. Our imperfect trading system could be improved, but this surge in unilateral measures isn't likely to deliver lasting and shared global prosperity."

'If anything, it will distort trade and resource allocation, spur retaliation, weaken growth, diminish living standards, and make it harder to coordinate policies that address global challenges, such as the climate transition," the major financial agency of the United Nations added.

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