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IMF Executive Board Completes the Seventh Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for Ukraine
From:IMF
原文
The IMF Board today completed the Seventh Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ukraine, enabling a disbursement of about US$0.4 billion (SDR 0.3 billion) to Ukraine, which will be channeled for budget support.
Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. The authorities met all end-December and continuous quantitative performance criteria, the prior action for this review, and the majority of structural benchmarks.
Sustained reform momentum, progress at domestic revenue mobilization, as well as full and timely disbursement of external support during the program period are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and improve governance.
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the Seventh Review of the EFF, enabling the authorities to draw US$0.4 billion (SDR 0.3 billion, which will be channeled by the authorities for budget support. This will bring the total disbursements under the IMF-supported program to US$10.1 billion.
Ukraine’s 48-month EFF, with access of SDR 11.6 billion (equivalent to about US$15.5 billion, or 577 percent of quota), was approved on March 31, 2023, and forms part of an international support package totaling US$148.8 billion in the baseline. Ukraine’s IMF-supported program helps anchor policies that sustain fiscal, external, and macro-financial stability at a time of exceptionally high uncertainty. The EFF aims to support Ukraine’s economic recovery, enhance governance, and strengthen institutions with the aim of promoting long-term growth in the context of reconstruction and Ukraine’s path to EU accession.
Ukraine’s performance under the program remains strong. All end-December and continuous quantitative performance criteria were met as well as the majority of structural benchmarks. The prior action on enacting an increase in tobacco excise taxes was also met while, the structural benchmark on the enactment of the law establishing a High Administrative Court was implemented with a delay. New benchmarks, including measures to improve public investment management, were established while the timelines of other benchmarks have been adjusted to accommodate capacity constraints. The authorities also requested a rephasing of IMF disbursements to better align them with Ukraine’s updated balance of payments needs. The overall size of the program remains unchanged.
Economic growth in 2024 remained resilient but slowed in the second half of the year. The slowdown is expected to continue in 2025 due to an increasingly tight labor market, the impact of attacks on energy infrastructure, and continued uncertainty about the evolution of the war. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has tightened monetary policy to respond to the rise in inflation, which remains mainly driven by food prices, while inflation expectations remain well anchored. Reserves remain adequate, sustained by continued sizeable external support. Overall, the outlook remains subject to exceptionally high uncertainty.
Following the Executive Board discussion on Ukraine, Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF, issued the following statement[1]:
“Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to take a devastating social and economic toll on Ukraine. In spite of this, macroeconomic stability is being preserved through skillful policymaking as well as substantial external support. The economy has remained resilient, but the recent growth slowdown is expected to persist in 2025 due to headwinds from energy needs and a tight labor market. Contingency planning is key to enable appropriate policy action should risks materialize.
“The program remains fully financed, with a cumulative external financing envelope of US$148.8 billion in the baseline scenario and US$162.9 billion in the downside scenario, over the 4-year program period, including the full utilization of the approximately US$50 billion from the G7’s Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine (ERA) initiative. Full, timely, and predictable disbursement of external support—on terms consistent with debt sustainability—remains essential so that the program remains fully financed.
“The 2025 Budget remains the fiscal anchor. The enactment of the tobacco excise tax law is welcomed, as it supports the authorities’ commitment to implementing the National Revenue Strategy. Accelerated implementation of this strategy, including modernization of the tax and customs services, reduction in tax evasion, and harmonization of legislation with EU standards, is required to meet high priority spending needs. This, combined with improvements in public investment management frameworks, medium-term budget preparation, and fiscal risk management, will support growth, investment, and fiscal sustainability.
“The authorities continue working to complete their debt restructuring strategy. They are currently focused on reaching agreement with the remaining holders of external commercial claims, including GDP warrants. Reaching agreement consistent with the program’s debt sustainability objectives is essential to reduce fiscal risks and create space for critical spending.
“The recent monetary policy tightening cycle is appropriate, and the NBU should stand ready for further action should inflation expectations deteriorate. Greater exchange rate flexibility will help strengthen economic resilience while safeguarding reserves.
“While the financial sector remains stable, vigilance is needed given heightened risks. Institutional weaknesses in the security markets regulator need to be tackled. Looking ahead, improving Ukraine’s capital markets infrastructure will be one of the key steps to attracting foreign capital for reconstruction.
“Sustained progress in anticorruption and governance reforms is needed. Additional efforts are required, including appointment of the new head of the Economic Security Bureau, completing the audit of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, strengthening AML/CFT frameworks, and amending the criminal procedure code.”
双语结合
IMF Executive Board Completes the Seventh Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for Ukraine.
国际货币基金组织执董会完成对乌克兰扩展基金安排下延长安排的第七次审查
The IMF Board today completed the Seventh Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ukraine, enabling a disbursement of about US$0.4 billion (SDR 0.3 billion) to Ukraine, which will be channeled for budget support.基金组织董事会今天完成了对乌克兰扩展基金安排 （EFF） 项下延期安排的第七次审查，向乌克兰支付了约 4 亿美元 （SDR 3 亿），这些资金将用于预算支持。
Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. The authorities met all end-December and continuous quantitative performance criteria, the prior action for this review, and the majority of structural benchmarks.乌克兰经济仍然具有弹性，尽管条件充满挑战，但在 EFF 下的表现仍然强劲。当局满足了所有 12 月底和持续的定量绩效标准、本次审查的先前行动以及大多数结构基准。
Sustained reform momentum, progress at domestic revenue mobilization, as well as full and timely disbursement of external support during the program period are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and improve governance.持续的改革势头、国内收入调动的进展以及在计划期间充分及时地支付外部支持对于维护宏观经济稳定、恢复财政和债务可持续性以及改善治理是必要的。
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the Seventh Review of the EFF, enabling the authorities to draw US$0.4 billion (SDR 0.3 billion, which will be channeled by the authorities for budget support. This will bring the total disbursements under the IMF-supported program to US$10.1 billion.华盛顿特区：国际货币基金组织 （IMF） 执董会今天完成了对 EFF 的第七次审查，使当局能够提取 4 亿美元（3 亿特别提款权），这些资金将由当局用于预算支持。这将使基金组织支持计划下的支付总额达到 101 亿美元。
Ukraine’s 48-month EFF, with access of SDR 11.6 billion (equivalent to about US$15.5 billion, or 577 percent of quota), was approved on March 31, 2023, and forms part of an international support package totaling US$148.8 billion in the baseline. Ukraine’s IMF-supported program helps anchor policies that sustain fiscal, external, and macro-financial stability at a time of exceptionally high uncertainty. The EFF aims to support Ukraine’s economic recovery, enhance governance, and strengthen institutions with the aim of promoting long-term growth in the context of reconstruction and Ukraine’s path to EU accession.乌克兰为期 48 个月的 EFF 于 2023 年 3 月 31 日获得批准，可获得 116 亿特别提款权（相当于约 155 亿美元，占配额的 577%），是基线总额为 1488 亿美元的国际支持计划的一部分。乌克兰的计划由国际货币基金组织 （IMF） 支持，有助于在异常高度不确定性时期锚定维持财政、外部和宏观金融稳定的政策。EFF 旨在支持乌克兰的经济复苏、加强治理和加强机构，目的是在重建和乌克兰加入欧盟的背景下促进长期增长。
Ukraine’s performance under the program remains strong. All end-December and continuous quantitative performance criteriawere met as well as the majority of structural benchmarks. The prior action on enacting an increase in tobacco excise taxes was also met while, the structural benchmark on the enactment of the law establishing a High Administrative Court was implemented with a delay. New benchmarks, including measures to improve public investment management, were established while the timelines of other benchmarks have been adjusted to accommodate capacity constraints. The authorities also requested a rephasing of IMF disbursements to better align them with Ukraine’s updated balance of payments needs. The overall size of the program remains unchanged. 乌克兰在该计划下的表现仍然强劲。满足所有 12 月底和持续定量绩效标准以及大多数结构基准。之前关于增加烟草消费税的行动也得到了满足，而颁布建立高等行政法院的法律的结构基准则延迟实施。制定了新的基准，包括改善公共投资管理的措施，同时调整了其他基准的时间表以适应容量限制。当局还要求重新安排国际货币基金组织的支付，以更好地使其与乌克兰最新的国际收支需求保持一致。程序的总体大小保持不变。
Economic growth in 2024 remained resilient but slowed in the second half of the year. The slowdown is expected to continue in 2025 due to an increasingly tight labor market, the impact of attacks on energyinfrastructure, and continued uncertainty about the evolution of the war. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has tightened monetary policy to respond to the rise in inflation, which remains mainly driven by food prices, while inflation expectations remain well anchored. Reserves remain adequate, sustained by continued sizeable external support. Overall, the outlook remains subject to exceptionally high uncertainty.2024 年的经济增长保持弹性，但下半年放缓。由于劳动力市场日益紧张、对能源基础设施的攻击影响以及战争演变的持续不确定性，预计 2025 年经济放缓将继续。乌克兰国家银行 （NBU） 收紧了货币政策以应对通胀上升，通胀仍然主要由食品价格驱动，而通胀预期仍然稳固。储备仍然充足，由持续的大规模外部支持维持。总体而言，前景仍存在极高的不确定性。
Following the Executive Board discussion on Ukraine, Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF, issued the following statement:
“Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to take a devastating social and economic toll on Ukraine. In spite of this, macroeconomic stability is being preserved through skillful policymaking as well as substantial external support. The economy has remained resilient, but the recent growth slowdown is expected to persist in 2025 due to headwinds from energy needs and a tight labor market. Contingency planning is key to enable appropriate policy action should risks materialize.“俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争继续对乌克兰造成毁灭性的社会和经济损失。尽管如此，宏观经济的稳定还是通过巧妙的政策制定和大量的外部支持得以维持。经济一直保持弹性，但由于能源需求和劳动力市场紧张的不利因素，最近的增长放缓预计将持续到 2025 年。应急计划是在风险出现时采取适当政策行动的关键。
“The program remains fully financed, with a cumulative external financing envelope of US$148.8 billion in the baseline scenario and US$162.9 billion in the downside scenario, over the 4-year program period, including the full utilization of the approximately US$50 billion from the G7’s Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine (ERA) initiative. Full, timely, and predictable disbursement of external support—on terms consistent with debt sustainability—remains essential so that the program remains fully financed.“该计划仍然资金充足，在 4 年计划期间，基线情景下的累计外部融资总额为 1488 亿美元，下行情景下的累计外部融资总额为 1629 亿美元，包括充分利用七国集团乌克兰特别收入加速贷款 （ERA） 计划的约 500 亿美元。根据与债务可持续性相一致的条款，充分、及时和可预测的外部支持支付仍然至关重要，这样才能使该计划保持充足的资金。
“The 2025 Budget remains the fiscal anchor. The enactment of the tobacco excise tax law is welcomed, as it supports the authorities’ commitment to implementing the National Revenue Strategy. Accelerated implementation of this strategy, including modernization of the tax and customs services, reduction in tax evasion, and harmonization of legislation with EU standards, is required to meet high priority spending needs. This, combined with improvements in public investment management frameworks, medium-term budget opreparatin, and fiscal risk management, will support growth, investment, and fiscal sustainability.“2025 年预算仍然是财政锚。烟草消费税法的颁布受到欢迎，因为它支持当局实施国家收入战略的承诺。 需要加快实施这一战略，包括税务和海关服务的现代化、减少逃税以及使立法与欧盟标准保持一致，以满足高度优先的支出需求。这与公共投资管理框架、中期预算编制和财政风险管理的改进相结合，将支持增长、投资和财政可持续性。
“The authorities continue working to complete their debt restructuring strategy. They are currently focused on reaching agreement with the remaining holders of external commercial claims, including GDP warrants. Reaching agreement consistent with the program’s debt sustainability objectives is essential to reduce fiscal risks and create space for critical spending.“当局继续努力完成他们的债务重组战略。他们目前正专注于与外部商业债权（包括 GDP 权证）的其余持有人达成协议。达成与该计划的债务可持续性目标一致的协议对于降低财政风险和为关键支出创造空间至关重要。
“The recent monetary policy tightening cycle is appropriate, and the NBU should stand ready for further action should inflation expectations deteriorate. Greater exchange rate flexibility will help strengthen economic resilience while safeguarding reserves.“最近的货币政策紧缩周期是适当的，如果通胀预期恶化，NBU 应该准备好采取进一步行动。更大的汇率灵活性将有助于增强经济韧性，同时保护储备。
“While the financial sector remains stable, vigilance is needed given heightened risks. Institutional weaknesses in the security markets regulator need to be tackled. Looking ahead, improving Ukraine’s capital markets infrastructure will be one of the key steps to attracting foreign capital for reconstruction.“虽然金融部门保持稳定，但鉴于风险较高，需要保持警惕。证券市场监管机构的制度弱点需要得到解决。展望未来，改善乌克兰的资本市场基础设施将是吸引外国资本进行重建的关键步骤之一。
“Sustained progress in anticorruption and governance reforms is needed. Additional efforts are required, including appointment of the new head of the Economic Security Bureau, completing the audit of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, strengthening AML/CFT frameworks, and amending the criminal procedure code.”“需要在反腐败和治理改革方面取得持续进展。还需要做出额外的努力，包括任命经济保障局的新局长，完成国家反腐败局的审计，加强反洗钱/反恐融资框架，以及修改刑事诉讼法。
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