国际货币基金组织官员:人工智能对世界经济既是机遇也是风险

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AI both opportunity, risk for world economy: IMF officials

Artificial intelligence (AI) could be both an opportunity and a risk for the world economy, according to officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

AI's contribution to global economic growth is expected to be significant, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a press briefing during the 2025 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF, held from October 13 to 18 in Washington, D.C., US.

"Our assessment, our view at this point, is that indeed AI will contribute to growth — somewhere between 0.1 and 0.8 percent. This is significant. Remember, we are stuck at around 3 percent growth right now. And if we were to extract that kind of boost of growth, that would be very significant for the world," she said.

The risk is that we may end up in a world with increased productivity, but it is also a source of divergence within and across countries, Georgieva said, adding that this is why preparedness really matters.

The IMF pointed out in its latest World Economic Outlook that today's surging investment in artificial intelligence echoes the dot-com boom of the late 1990s. Optimism has driven up technology investment, raised stock valuations, and stimulated consumption through capital gains. However, the potential risk is that if AI fails to meet high profit expectations, the market may significantly reprice, leading to a series of adverse effects, such as eroding wealth and dampening consumption.

"We think of AI as a two-sided risk, because in the near term there's a lot of investment in AI, [and] stock markets' valuation have surged. So, in the near term, there may be a risk of some of that kind of adjusting and unwinding, and we draw the similarity with the dot-com period," said Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF's Research Department.

Vitor Gaspar, director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, said artificial intelligence is giving the global economy a lift but also contributing to concerns about stretched asset valuations.

"So, at this point in time, we do see that the world economy is being helped by developments in artificial intelligence, in particular, and that technology in general. At the same time, it is true, and you can see that documented in the Global Financial Stability Report, that asset valuations are stretched. That is something that leads us to be concerned with the possibility of financial disturbances," he said.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）官员表示，人工智能（AI）对世界经济既是机遇，也是风险。IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃在10月13日至18日在美国华盛顿特区举行的世界银行集团和国际货币基金组织2025年年会新闻发布会上表示，预计人工智能将对全球经济增长做出巨大贡献。

“我们目前的评估，我们的观点是，人工智能确实会促进经济增长——大约在0.1%到0.8%之间。这是一个很大的数字。别忘了，我们目前的增长率还停留在3%左右。如果我们能够实现这样的增长提振，对世界来说将意义非凡。”格奥尔基耶娃表示，

风险在于，我们最终可能会进入一个生产力提高的世界，但这也可能造成国家内部和国家之间出现分化，她补充说，这就是为什么做好准备至关重要。

国际货币基金组织在其最新的《世界经济展望》中指出，如今人工智能投资的激增与20世纪90年代末的互联网泡沫时期如出一辙。乐观情绪推动了技术投资，提高了股票估值，并通过资本收益刺激了消费。然而，潜在的风险在于，如果人工智能未能达到高利润预期，市场可能会大幅重新定价，从而导致一系列不利影响，例如财富缩水和消费抑制。

“我们认为人工智能是一种双面风险，因为短期内人工智能领域投资巨大，而且股市估值飙升。因此，短期内可能存在某种调整和回调的风险，我们认为这与互联网泡沫时期类似，”国际货币基金组织研究部副主任佩蒂亚·科耶娃·布鲁克斯表示。

国际货币基金组织财政事务部主任维托·加斯帕尔表示，人工智能正在提振全球经济，但也加剧了人们对资产估值过高的担忧。

“因此，目前我们确实看到，世界经济正受益于人工智能的发展，尤其是人工智能技术的发展。与此同时，资产估值确实被高估了，这一点在《全球金融稳定报告》中也有所体现。这让我们对金融动荡的可能性感到担忧，”他说道。



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