英中对照:国际货币基金组织第一副总裁丹·卡茨在中国发展高层论坛上的讲话

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China’s New Chapter: Rebalancing and Unleashing Market Forces

Remarks by IMF First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz at the China Development Forum

March 22, 2026

中国的新篇章：再平衡与释放市场力量

国际货币基金组织第一副总裁丹·卡茨在中国发展高层论坛上的讲话

2026年3月22日

Distinguished guests, ladies, and gentlemen. It’s an honor to be here. I want to thank the China Development Forum for inviting me to speak today.

各位嘉宾，女士们、先生们：我很荣幸能参加本次活动，也很感谢中国发展高层论坛邀请我发表讲话。

We meet at a time of unrelenting change. The forces reshaping the global economy—in trade, geopolitics, technology, and demographics—are moving faster than at any point in recent history.

本次活动发生在一个持续变化、动荡不息的时期。贸易、地缘政治、技术、人口形势 —— 各种重塑全球经济的力量正以前所未有的速度影响着我们。

However, as recent weeks have shown, this era of rapid change has also been an era of more frequent shocks. And although I had planned to speak today more about change than shocks—and in particular about the historic and rapid rise of China in the global economy—let me first offer some thoughts on recent developments in the Middle East.

然而，正如近几周所显示的，这个快速变化的时代同时也是一个冲击更为频发的时代。我原本计划今天更多讨论 “变化” 而非 “冲击”，尤其是偏重中国在全球经济中历史性的迅速崛起。但在此之前，我想先就中东地区的最新情况谈几点看法。

The conflict in the Middle East has introduced a significant new source of risk into the global economy, that until recently, had looked reasonably resilient.

中东地区的冲突给全球经济带来了一个新的重大风险来源，而就在不久之前，全球经济前景似乎还展现了相当的韧性。

The full consequences are still difficult to assess, but we expect these developments to pose complicated trade-offs for policymakers.

该冲突的全部影响目前仍难以全面评估，但我们预计，这一事态的发展将给政策制定者带来复杂的权衡取舍问题。

Of course, the first line of defense against supply disruptions is prices. Demand should be allowed to adjust to a certain degree to ensure that the marginal uses of energy are the most productive ones.

当然，应对供给扰动的第一道防线是价格。当局应当在一定程度上允许需求作出调整，以确保能源的边际使用投向生产效率最高的领域。

But understandably, fiscal policy might need to play a role in adjusting to the energy shock. Governments may try to protect households with energy caps and subsidy schemes. This may cushion cost of living pressures in the short run, but these measures are fiscally costly at a time when many government budgets are stretched. And because they suppress price signals, they often prevent an orderly reduction in energy usage and may keep overall energy prices—and demand generally—elevated for longer.

但可以理解的是，在应对能源冲击的调整过程中，财政政策可能也需要发挥作用。各国政府可能会通过设定能源价格上限和实施补贴计划等方式来保护家庭。这些措施在短期内或许能够缓解生活成本压力，但在许多政府预算本已吃紧的情况下，这些措施的财政代价十分高昂。而且，这些措施抑制了价格信号，因此往往会阻碍能源使用的有序减少，并可能在更长时间内推高整体能源价格以及更广泛的需求水平。

For central banks, the policy environment is particularly challenging. If energy prices remain higher for longer, central banks may have to balance risks to price stability against a downturn in the economy and a potential tightening of financial conditions. Former U.S. President Teddy Roosevelt once said that in moments of decision, the “worst thing you can do is nothing.” While this logic might have applied to the combat or high-stakes political situations for which President Roosevelt is famous, it does not apply to central banks facing an energy shock.

对中央银行来说，当前的政策环境尤为严峻。如果能源价格在较长时间内维持高位，中央银行可能不得不在价格稳定风险与经济下行及潜在的金融环境收紧之间进行权衡取舍。美国前总统西奥多・罗斯福（Teddy Roosevelt）曾说过，在需要作出决断的时刻，“最糟糕的莫过于什么都不做”。尽管这种逻辑或许适用于罗斯福总统为人称道的军事行动或高风险政治场景，但它并不适用于面对能源冲击的中央银行。

Doing nothing is perfectly logical if it is the best available alternative, and for central banks in the current moment, there is very high option value to waiting for now. Central banks with less firmly anchored inflation expectations and that have been struggling with persistently high inflation may need to respond faster. But central banks that were on hold or in the process of gradually adjusting policy can likely afford to take their time and receive additional clarity about the rapidly evolving situation before deciding whether a pivot—either toward a more restrictive stance to address inflation risks or a more accommodative stance to address output risks—is warranted.

如果 “什么都不做” 是当前可选方案中的最优选择，那么它就是完全符合逻辑的做法；而对于当下的中央银行来说，按兵不动保持观望具有很高的 “期权价值”。在通胀预期锚定不够稳固的经济体中，以及在长期受高通胀困扰的经济体中，中央银行可能需要更快作出反应。但对于此前已按兵不动或正逐步调整政策的中央银行来说，它们很可能有条件从容应对；而且无论是决定转向更为紧缩的立场以应对通胀风险，还是决定转向更为宽松的立场以应对产出风险，它们很可能都会事先获得对快速演变形势的更清晰认识。

Critically, all central banks should articulate their potential reaction functions, including with scenario analysis, to sensitize the market to potential policy paths should risks to inflation and output materialize.

至关重要的是，所有中央银行都应清晰阐述其潜在的政策反应函数，包括提供情景分析，以便引导市场理解其在通胀和产出风险显现时的可能政策路径。

Of course, it is early days, and much could change. But what is clear is that policymakers and businesses alike will need to adapt, underscoring a lesson successive shocks have taught us: that robust policy frameworks and agility are essential. Recent experience has also shown that allowing the private sector to adapt and innovate in response to shocks can enhance the overall resilience of the economy.

当然，目前仍处于事态发展的早期阶段，未来仍可能出现很多变化。但很显然，政策制定者和企业都需要作出调整，这再次印证了连续冲击带给我们的一个重要教训：健全的政策框架以及灵活应变的能力至关重要。近期的经验还表明，允许私人部门为应对冲击而进行调整和创新，有助于增强整个经济的韧性。

It is with these lessons in mind that I turn to China. China has proven resilient in the face of massive shocks in past decades, due in part to the adaptability of its private sector. Giving market forces an even greater role going forward could provide a deeper and more durable foundation for that resilience.

说罢经验教训，让我来谈谈中国。在过去几十年，中国在一系列重大冲击面前展现出了韧性，这在一定程度上得益于其私人部门的适应能力。展望未来，让市场力量进一步发挥更大的作用，有望为这种韧性提供更深厚、更持久的基础。

China’s meteoric rise

中国的迅猛崛起

Over the past 40 years, China’s policymakers engineered one of the most impressive achievements in the history of the global economy.

在过去四十年里，中国的政策制定者推动实现了全球经济史上最引人瞩目的一大成就。

In 1978, on the eve of the launch of the “reform and opening up” campaign, China had one of the lowest per capita income levels in the world. Skillful, long-term leadership as well as the hard work of the Chinese people powered decades of rapid growth and transformed China into the world’s second largest economy. Over 800 million people were lifted out of extreme poverty and the middle class expanded dramatically.

1978 年，在改革开放启动前夕，中国的人均收入水平曾位居世界最低之列。得益于中国领导人的高瞻远瞩和人民群众的辛勤努力，中国经济实现了数十年的高速增长，这使中国一跃成为世界第二大经济体。八亿多民众摆脱了极端贫困，中等收入群体迅速壮大。

Behind these achievements was a deliberately constructed policy mix that combined both market-oriented reforms and state direction of resources, with a general trend toward a greater role for the private sector. For example, from 1999 to 2015, the share of total industrial revenues of state-holding enterprises went from approximately 50 percent to approximately 20 percent. Yet in recent years, the increased role of the private sector has stalled.

在这些成就的背后，是一套精心设计的政策组合：其中既包括了市场化改革，也涵盖了国家对资源的引导配置，而一个总的趋势是让私人部门发挥更大的作用。例如，国有控股企业在全部工业收入中的占比由 1999 年的约 50% 下降到了 2015 年的约 20%。不过近年来，私人部门作用的扩大进程有所停滞。

This has coincided with the slowing of China’s overall growth amid less efficient resource allocation, declining returns on investment, and demographic pressures. Significant challenges remain, including from deflationary pressures that risk becoming entrenched if domestic demand—and especially consumption—stays weak. Reforms are more important now than ever to foster new engines of growth.

这一变化与中国整体经济增速放缓同时出现，其背后存在多重原因，包括资源配置效率下降、投资回报率走低，以及人口形势压力增加等。与此同时，中国仍然面临着多项重大挑战，其来源包括通缩压力 —— 如果国内需求（尤其是消费）持续走弱，通缩压力存在固化的风险。因此，开展改革以培育新的增长动能比以往任何时候都更加重要。

Rebalancing and unleashing the power of market forces

再平衡与释放市场力量

Indeed, China’s policymakers recognize these challenges and are taking steps to address them. They adopted a more expansionary fiscal policy stance in 2025 and 2026 and began their anti-involution campaign to reduce over-investment in some industries. Their 15th Five-Year Plan prioritizes increasing consumption as a driver of economic growth, which would also help reduce China’s external imbalances.

实际上，中国的政策制定者已经认识到了这些挑战，并正采取措施加以应对。他们在 2025 年和 2026 年采取了更具扩张性的财政政策立场，并启动了 “反内卷” 行动，以减少部分行业的过度投资。中国的第十五个五年规划将扩大消费作为推动经济增长的一大引擎，这也有助于缓解中国的外部失衡。

These are helpful measures, but China can do more to increase consumption and domestic demand—especially for services—by boosting household incomes and reducing incentives for precautionary savings. That means shifting resources away from industrial subsidies and infrastructure and toward social safety net programs and stabilizing the property sector to give citizens the confidence to spend more and save less. It also means shifting the incidence of taxes from already heavily taxed middle-income households toward higher-income households and reducing corporate tax exemptions.

以上这些都是有益的举措；不过，中国仍可通过提高居民收入、降低对预防性储蓄的激励，进一步扩大消费和国内需求 —— 尤其是服务业需求。为此，中国需要将资源从产业补贴和基础设施建设中逐步转移出来，更多投向社保体系项目；并且需要稳定房地产市场，以此增强居民信心，从而促进人们多消费、少储蓄。此外，中国还需要将税收负担从已承受较高税负的中等收入群体更多转向高收入群体，同时减少企业税收减免。

Productivity is another essential part of the reform effort. And here, deeper market-oriented structural reforms are critical. Enabling a greater role for markets to direct resources to areas of greater productivity could be transformative for China’s growth and prosperity. We see three pillars of reform that could be particularly impactful.

提高生产率是改革工作中的另一个关键部分。在这一领域，更深入地开展市场化结构性改革至关重要。让市场发挥更大的作用、以便引导资源流向生产率更高的领域，可能对中国的增长前景和未来繁荣产生变革性的影响。我们认为，三大改革支柱尤为关键。

First, authorities should continue to level the playing field across firms. China has relied heavily on a mix of subsidies, tax breaks, and cheap credit to support priority sectors. These were helpful in some cases to correct market failures and support policy aims like national security, but they have not been costless. IMF estimates suggest that scaling back preferential treatment provided to specific firms and sectors could boost aggregate productivity by over 1 percent, in turn raising China’s level of GDP by up to 2 percent. Allowing a more level playing field, where private firms, small and medium enterprises, and even foreign companies can compete fairly is key for innovation and productivity and will generate higher incomes and give consumers more choices. The government’s Private Economy Promotion Law is a useful start.

第一，当局应继续为企业营造公平的竞争环境。长期以来，在支持重点部门发展方面，中国在很大程度上依靠补贴、税收优惠以及低成本信贷的政策组合。在某些情况下，这些做法有助于纠正市场失灵并服务于国家安全等政策目标，但其并非没有成本。IMF 的估计显示，缩减针对特定企业和行业的优惠待遇，可能使整体生产率提高 1 个百分点以上，从而将中国的 GDP 水平提升多达 2 个百分点。营造更加公平的竞争环境，使私人企业、中小企业乃至外资企业都能够公平开展竞争，这是推动创新和提升生产率的关键，还将提高收入水平，并为消费者提供更多选择。政府出台《促进民营经济发展法》是一个有益的开端。

The second pillar is greater reliance on market-based pricing. One of the most important prices in any economy is the cost of capital. It shapes investment decisions and influences where resources flow. In China, the direction of capital toward less-productive borrowers has led to rising debt, weakened financial institutions, and contributed to involution as weaker firms are supported at the expense of stronger and more efficient firms. Market-oriented reforms that enable a larger share of funding to go to more productive enterprises and that reduce incentives for overproduction—by for example, doing away with targets for GDP growth and production in specific sectors—could make better use of Chinese savings. In the property sector, accelerating the exit of unviable developers and allowing greater housing price flexibility would help clear the overhang that has weighed on household and business confidence.

第二个支柱是进一步依靠市场化定价。在任何经济体中，最关键的价格之一是资本的成本。它决定着投资的决策，也影响着资源的流向。在中国，资本流向生产率较低的借款主体导致了债务上升，削弱了金融机构，同时也助长了 “内卷” 现象 —— 以牺牲更有实力、更为高效的企业为代价，持续为较弱的企业提供支持。通过推动市场化改革，使更大比例的资金流向生产率更高的企业以及减少过度生产的激励 —— 如取消 GDP 增长目标和为特定行业设定的生产目标，将有助于更有效地利用中国的储蓄资源。在房地产领域，加快缺乏可持续经营开发商的有序退出，并允许住房价格更灵活地调整，将有助于消化积压的库存，恢复居民和企业的信心。

A third pillar is to strengthen the services sector to create more durable economic growth. The Chinese service sector overall is significantly smaller than other major economies, and with China already accounting for approximately 30 percent of global manufacturing output, the service sector has much more room to grow. Indeed, total factor productivity in market services in China is already growing faster than in manufacturing. With less regulation and by allowing the market to play a much larger role, other sectors in the service economy could grow faster, including healthcare, education, and professional and technical services, which would durably raise productivity.

第三个支柱是加强服务业，以打造更加持久的经济增长动力。总体来看，中国的服务业规模显著小于其他主要经济体；而在中国已占全球制造业产出约 30% 的背景下，其服务业拥有广阔的发展空间。事实上，中国市场化服务业的全要素生产率增速已经快于制造业。通过放松监管、让市场在资源配置中发挥更大作用，有望助力服务业经济中的其他领域（包括医疗、教育、专业服务、技术服务等）实现更快发展，而这将实现生产率的持久提升。

China’s next chapter

中国的新篇章

Market forces are the key to unlocking the next phase of China’s economic growth. The state's role will need to evolve. Rather than directing investment toward specific industries, government should instead build the conditions that enable private sector innovation and market forces to direct China's immense resources to where they can generate the most value.

市场力量是开启中国经济下一阶段增长的关键所在。国家的角色需要随之转变 —— 政府不应再将投资导向特定产业，而是应营造有利于私人部门创新的制度环境，并让市场力量引导中国庞大的资源流向能够创造最大价值的领域。

This transition would be good for China, and in a rapidly changing and shock-prone world that needs durable sources of dynamism and stability, it would be good for us all.

这一转型将促进中国自身的发展；不仅如此，在一个快速变化、冲击频发、亟需持久活力与稳定的世界中，这一转型也将惠及我们所有人。

Thank you very much.谢谢大家。

https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/03/21/sp032226-chinas-new-chapter-rebalancing-and-unleashing-market-forces

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