模拟IMF学习资料|国际货币基金组织在疫情期间和之后的贷款

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导读

新冠疫情的爆发和持续蔓延给世界经济造成了极其重大而深刻的影响，许多国家深陷经济危机，国际货币基金组织作为世界两大金融机构之一，致力于促进全球货币合作，确保金融稳定，促进国际贸易，在新冠疫情背景下，充分发挥自身的作用，利用贷款工具帮助各国渡过自2008年以来世界经济的至暗时刻。

IMF Lending During the Pandemic and Beyond

国际货币基金组织在疫情期间和之后的贷款

Source: IMF Blog

By Robert Gregory, Huidan Lin, and Martin Mühleisen

In the face of unprecedented uncertainty and the severe economic impact triggered by COVID-19, the Fund continues to adapt its lending. At the same time, it aims to ensure realistic targets, uphold the credibility of programs, and foster national ownership.

面对新冠疫情造成的前所未有的不确定性和严重的经济影响，国际货币基金组织（IMF）继续调整其贷款。同时，IMF致力于确保切实可行的目标，维护贷款规划的可信性，并促进国家自主性。

To date, the Fund has provided financial assistance, mainly through emergency lending and precautionary lending tools, to about 80 countries.

到目前为止，IMF主要通过紧急贷款和预防性贷款工具向约80个国家提供了资金支持。

In addition, more than 30 countries have expressed an interest in Fund-supported programs to rebuild financial safety nets, and deal with the immediate aftermath of the pandemic.

此外，30多个国家对IMF支持的重建金融安全网和应对疫情直接影响的贷款规划表示了兴趣。

To help members cope with this once-in-a-century pandemic, IMF lending programs are adapting—through innovation and increased flexibility—as countries move from the initial containment phase, to stabilization, and eventually to recovery.

为了帮助成员国应对这场罕见的疫情，IMF正在调整其贷款规划。随着各国从最初的防控阶段过渡到稳定时期并最终实现经济恢复，IMF通过采用创新的方法和提高灵活性，使贷款规划适应成员国的需要。



图1



图2

Near-term focus: macroeconomic stabilization

近期重点：宏观经济稳定

IMF-supported programs in the near term focus primarily on stabilizing the economy. This includes establishing spending priorities (for example on health and other social spending, as well as liquidity and income support to the most affected firms and households). Monetary policy should be as accommodative as possible while being mindful of inflation risks, and financial sector policy should seek to avoid a credit crunch while maintaining sound balance sheets.

IMF支持的规划在近期重点关注稳定经济。这包括确定优先支出领域（例如，医疗和其他社会支出，以及对受影响最大的企业和家庭提供的流动性和收入支持）。货币政策应尽可能宽松，同时关注通胀风险。金融部门政策应着眼于避免信贷紧缩，同时保持资产负债表稳健。

However, conventional policies alone may not be enough. In some circumstances, additional measures may be considered. For instance, the flexibility built into the existing regulatory framework could be used to the fullest, and there may be further room for using unconventional monetary policies. However, some other measures—such as monetary budget financing—may risk undermining hard-won gains in policy making and institution building, set damaging precedents, and would be hard to unwind.

然而，仅依靠传统的政策可能是不够的。在一些情况下，可以考虑采用其他措施。例如，可以充分利用现在监管框架的内在灵活性，并且使用非常规货币政策可能还有进一步的空间。然而，一些其他措施（如货币预算融资）有可能损害政策制定和体制建设方面来之不易的成果，形成有害的先例，并且难以撤回。

During the current crisis, the Fund’s program monitoring (including on emergency financing) has put a greater focus on the quality and governance of spending measures—rather than specific and measurable conditions, for example, on central government borrowing, that are traditionally attached to IMF lending.

在当前的危机中，IMF的规划监测（包括对紧急融资的监测）更加重视支出措施的质量和治理，而不是具体的、可测量的条件，例如，关于中央政府借款的条件（IMF贷款的传统附带条件）。

The reason for this is simple. The unprecedented uncertainty brought on by the pandemic means it has become more difficult to plan economic policies, and targets risk quickly becoming obsolete.

原因很简单。疫情造成了前所未有的不确定性，这意味着，制定经济政策计划变得更加困难，目标可能很快过时。

This trend is likely to continue for the duration of the pandemic until a firmer view on the economic outlook and financing conditions can be established. Notwithstanding a more holistic assessment of policies in the meantime, countries will need to demonstrate that Fund resources are being used properly.

这一趋势在疫情结束之前很可能持续下去，直到能够对经济前景和融资条件形成更明确的看法。尽管对政策进行了更全面的评估，但各国仍需证明IMF的资金得到恰当的使用。

Dealing with uncertainty

应对不确定性

At the same time, country authorities will need to remain agile in reacting to economic shocks and addressing future risks. This puts a premium on regular discussions between country authorities and Fund staff about adverse scenarios and adequate policy responses in both program and surveillance cases.

与此同时，各国当局需要继续灵活地应对经济冲击和解决未来的风险。为此，各国当局与IMF工作人员应定期讨论不利的情景和充分的应对政策，在实施贷款规划的国家和接受监督的国家都是如此。

With rising debt levels, more countries are likely to be vulnerable to debt distress. When a country’s debt sustainability is unclear, extending the maturity of government liabilities can be helpful in determining the future course of action until there is further clarity about the need and scope for a possible debt treatment later on.

随着债务水平上升，更多国家有可能面临债务困境。当一国的债务可持续性尚不清楚时，延长政府负债的期限可能有助于确定未来的行动方针，直到对今后可能的债务措施的必要性和范围有进一步的明确认识为止。

This involves costs—such as rating downgrades, and possibly the declaration of a credit event—but, in the end, investors can benefit by resolving the underlying problems that led to loss of market access.

这是有代价的，例如评级下调，以及可能的信用事件声明，但最终投资者可以通过解决导致市场融资渠道丧失的问题而获益。

By freeing up critical resources and reducing pressure on foreign reserves, maturity extensions can also help reduce the need for austerity and monetary tightening that can deepen economic pain.

延长期限可以释放关键的资源，并缓解外汇储备承受的压力，从而有助于减少可能加深经济痛苦的财政和货币紧缩的必要性。

Finally, many countries may be able to manage the pandemic and its economic fallout without Fund financing but may want to seek insurance against unforeseen shocks. For those, the Fund’s precautionary lending tools are an attractive option that can ease market access at lower costs. These can be unwound gradually as conditions improve, for example, countries with Flexible Credit Lines could transition to Short-term Liquidity Lines.

最后，许多国家可能能够在没有IMF融资的情况下控制疫情和经济影响，但它们可能希望获得保险，以防范不可预见的冲击。对于这些国家，IMF的预防性贷款工具是一个有吸引力的选择，能够促进以更低成本进入市场融资。这些工具可以随形势改善而逐步撤回，例如，使用灵活信贷额度的国家可以过渡到采用短期流动性额度。

Supporting structural adjustment to a “new normal”

支持结构性调整适应“新常态”

As uncertainty abates, Fund lending will progressively shift, reflecting the need to support countries restoring policy space and reducing debt vulnerabilities.

随着不确定性消退，IMF的贷款将逐步转变，反映出支持各国恢复政策空间和减轻债务脆弱性的必要性。

For most countries, the post-pandemic economy will be different from what existed before. As recovery takes hold, and the effects of the crisis become clearer, Fund programs will need to shift focus to growth-enhancing reforms, to help members achieve strong and sustainable recoveries from the crisis.

对于多数国家，疫情之后的经济将不同于之前的状态。随着复苏企稳，危机的影响变得更为清晰，IMF的规划需要将重点转向有利于经济增长的改革，以帮助各国从危机中实现强劲和可持续的复苏。

For example, reforms to allow employees to move easily in and out of jobs are less critical to containing the virus and stabilizing the economy but may be important in adjusting to a new normal as economies could be undergoing significant structural change, coping with digital technologies and the effects of climate change.

例如，实施有关改革，使员工能够更容易地转换工作，这对于防控病毒和稳定经济不是那么关键，但对于适应“新常态”可能就非常重要，因为经济可能会经历显著的结构性变化，以应对数字技术和气候变化的影响。

As a result, the IMF will continue its collaboration with other international financial institutions to implement structural policies. These include health, debt management, and social protection, improved governance in lending, as well as steps to improve resilience to future health and climate risks.

因此，IMF将继续与其他国际金融机构合作来实施结构性政策。这包括医疗卫生、债务管理和社会保障，改善贷款治理，以及采取措施提高对未来卫生和气候风险的抵御能力。

This crisis has tested the resilience and agility of governments and central banks to the extreme. The IMF is committed, together with its partner organizations, to matching these efforts on the international level. Efficient deployment of the Fund’s lending tools will continue to play an integral part in this regard.

这场危机极大地考验了各国政府和中央银行的韧性和灵活性。IMF与伙伴机构一道，致力于在国际层面提供相应的支持。IMF有效部署其贷款工具将继续在这一过程中发挥必不可少的作用。

重点词汇





小知识

IMF贷款大致分两类：优惠性贷款和非优惠性贷款。所有会员国都可申请非优惠性贷款，而优惠性贷款只有低收入的贫困国家才能申请。

1)      “备用贷款协定”和“扩大协定”属于短期贷款和中期贷款，旨在暂时缓和国际收支的不平衡；

2)      一些最贫穷的国家一旦丧失支付能力，组织可提供“结构调整优惠贷款”和“加强结构调整的优惠贷款”；

3）   “提供补偿性资金和提供临时性资金的优惠贷款”是为暂时缓和出口收入的骤减，或对一些不可预料的事情（如自然灾害）给予补偿。

小测验

撤回

obsolete

holistic

期限

市场融资渠道

free up

unforeseen

Flexible Credit Lines

Short-term Liquidity Lines

新常态

abate       消退

vulnerability

企稳

有利于经济增长的改革

to the extreme

韧性

灵活性



编辑  王玉岚

排版  张苏琰

监制  徐奇舟



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