国际货币基金组织(IMF): 2021-2022经济发展前景最新预测

马宝清马宝清

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前言

各位平安健康!

2021年7月27日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布报告，对今明两年全球的经济发展前景进行预测。本公众号推送的为IMF报告概览部分，概览使用的原标题为“全球复苏的断层扩大”。

为保持原汁原味以及方便更多朋友阅读，本推文同时呈现英文原文和来自IMF官网的中文译本。

另外，IMF报告概览涉及的主要背景资料如下:

○ 欧盟、美国与中国相继出台货币宽松政策，刺激境内消费。

2021年3月8日，美国国会通过1.9万亿美元的经济刺激法案。7月30日(周五)，美国参议院投票批准拜登政府提出的1万亿美元基础设施议案。此外，美国联邦储备理事会(FED)每月支出1200亿美元作债券购买，增加市场美元流动性。

2021年6月15日，欧盟通过出售10年期债券筹集200亿欧元作为复苏基金，希望到2026年底从资本市场筹集8000亿欧元。

2021年7月12日，中国央行下调金融机构存款准备金率，释放长期资金约人民币1万亿。

○ 通货膨胀 (????天津会谈:  美国难于启齿的一件事，中国故意不提)

综合资料分析，通胀率最好不得超过2%; 适当的通胀有利于经济成长和股市繁荣。

美国(6月份5.4%)、欧元区(6月份1.9%)和英国(5月份2.1%)发生通货膨胀。土耳其4月份通胀率达17.4%，汇率崩盘。

中国5月份通胀率达1.75%，6月份下降至约1.3%，表明消费不足。

(本文字数: 5608，预计阅读时间15分钟。)

Fault Lines Widen in the Global Recovery

全球复苏的断层扩大

Economic prospects have diverged further across countries since the April 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. Vaccine access has emerged as the principal fault line along which the global recovery splits into two blocs: those that can look forward to further normalization of activity later this year (almost all advanced economies) and those that will still face resurgent infections and rising COVID death tolls. The recovery, however, is not assured even in countries where infections are currently very low so long as the virus circulates elsewhere.

自2021年4月《世界经济展望》预测发布以来，各国的经济前景出现了进一步的分化。疫苗获取能力已成为世界经济的主要断层。沿着这条断层，全球复苏形成了两组阵营：一组是有望在今年晚些时候进一步恢复正常经济活动的国家（几乎都是发达经济体），另一组是仍面临感染病例再度激增、死亡人数不断上升的国家。然而，只要病毒还在世界上某个地方扩散，目前感染病例很少的国家也不能保证可以平稳实现复苏。

The global economy is projected to grow 6.0 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022.The 2021 global forecast is unchanged from the April 2021 WEO, but with offsetting revisions. Prospects for emerging market and developing economies have been marked down for 2021, especially for Emerging Asia. By contrast, the forecast for advanced economies is revised up. These revisions reflect pandemic developments and changes in policy support. The 0.5 percentage-point upgrade for 2022 derives largely from the forecast upgrade for advanced economies, particularly the United States, reflecting the anticipated legislation of additional fiscal support in the second half of 2021 and improved health metrics more broadly across the group.

预计全球经济2021年和2022年分别增长6.0%和4.9%。与2021年4月《世界经济展望》相比，2021年全球增长预测没有变化，但对各组国家的预测作出了向上或向下的调整。预计2021年新兴市场和发展中经济体增长前景恶化，特别是亚洲新兴经济体。与此形成对照，发达经济体的增长预测被上调。这些调整反映了疫情的走势以及政策支持的变化。2022年增长预测上调了0.5个百分点，主要是因为发达经济体、特别是美国增长预测上调——这体现了美国预计将于2021年下半年出台的额外财政支持立法，并且这组国家的健康指标普遍改善。

Recent price pressures for the most part reflect unusual pandemic-related developments and transitory supply-demand mismatches. Inflation is expected to return to its pre-pandemic ranges in most countries in 2022 once these disturbances work their way through prices, though uncertainty remains high. Elevated inflation is also expected in some emerging market and developing economies, related in part to high food prices. Central banks should generally look through transitory inflation pressures and avoid tightening until there is more clarity on underlying price dynamics. Clear communication from central banks on the outlook for monetary policy will be key to shaping inflation expectations and safeguarding against premature tightening of financial conditions. There is, however, a risk that transitory pressures could become more persistent and central banks may need to take preemptive action.

最近的价格压力主要反映了与疫情有关的不同寻常的状况以及暂时的供需失衡。一旦这些因素充分传导到价格上，大多数国家的通胀水平预计将在2022年回到疫情前的范围，尽管不确定性仍然很高。预计一些新兴市场和发展中经济体的通胀也将处在较高水平，这在一定程度上与食品价格高涨有关。中央银行总体上不应过于担心暂时的通胀压力，在基础价格走势更加明朗之前应避免收紧货币政策。中央银行就未来的货币政策开展清晰的沟通非常重要，这有助于形成通胀预期并防范过早收紧融资环境。但暂时的通胀压力有可能变成更为持久的压力，中央银行可能需要提前采取行动。

Risks around the global baseline are to the downside. Slower-than-anticipated vaccine rollout would allow the virus to mutate further. Financial conditions could tighten rapidly, for instance from a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook in advanced economies if inflation expectations increase more rapidly than anticipated. A double hit to emerging market and developing economies from worsening pandemic dynamics and tighter external financial conditions would severely set back their recovery and drag global growth below this outlook’s baseline.

全球基线预测的风险偏于下行。如果疫苗普及速度慢于预期，则病毒可能进一步发生变异。融资环境可能迅速收紧。例如，如果发达经济体的通胀预期的上升速度快于预期，市场就会对这些经济体的货币政策前景作出重新评估，而这可能引起融资环境迅速收紧。新兴市场和发展中经济体可能受到疫情恶化和外部融资环境收紧的双重冲击，这会导致其复苏进程严重受挫，使全球增长低于我们这里讨论的基线预测。

Multilateral action has a vital role to play in diminishing divergences and strengthening global prospects. The immediate priority is to deploy vaccines equitably worldwide. A $50 billion IMF staff proposal, jointly endorsed by the World Health Organization, World Trade Organization, and World Bank, provides clear targets and pragmatic actions at a feasible cost to end the pandemic. Financially constrained economies also need unimpeded access to international liquidity. The proposed $650 billion General Allocation of Special Drawing Rights at the IMF is set to boost reserve assets of all economies and help ease liquidity constraints. Countries also need to redouble collective efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These multilateral actions can be reinforced by national-level policies tailored to the stage of the crisis that help catalyze a sustainable, inclusive recovery. Concerted, well-directed policies can make the difference between a future of durable recoveries for all economies or one with widening fault lines—as many struggle with the health crisis while a handful see conditions normalize, albeit with the constant threat of renewed flare-ups.

多边行动对于减轻复苏分化、改善全球前景发挥着关键作用。当务之急是在全球范围内公平部署疫苗。IMF工作人员提出了一项规模为500亿美元的建议，其得到了世界卫生组织、世界贸易组织和世界银行的共同认可。该项提议就结束疫情提出了成本可行、目标明确、行动务实的方案。资金受到约束的经济体还需畅通无阻地获得国际流动性。目前提议的IMF 6500亿美元特别提款权普遍分配将补充所有经济体的储备资产，帮助缓解流动性约束。各国还需加大集体行动力度，以减少温室气候排放。在采取这些多边行动的同时，各国还应根据本国所处危机阶段实施国家层面的政策，促进可持续、包容性复苏。协同实施、方向明确的政策能够使所有经济体实现持久复苏，而如果没有这些政策，全球经济的断层将继续扩大——许多国家在健康危机中挣扎，而少数国家逐步恢复正常，但仍面临疫情卷土重来的威胁。



❈ 资料来源链接:

https://www.imf.org/-/media/Images/IMF/Publications/WEO/2021/July/Chinese/WEO-Chart-JUL-21.ashx#.YQfdQHXAcXo.link



公众号ID: KMAN2021

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