【经济】国际货币基金组织警告俄罗斯天然气被关闭的后果

梨波儿

龙腾网看世界（关注小程序了解更多世界实时资讯）

正文翻译



IMF warns of consequences of Russian gas shutoff
Some EU countries could go into recession, according to the organization
20 Jul, 2022

国际货币基金组织警告俄罗斯天然气被关闭的后果
该组织称，一些欧盟国家可能陷入衰退
2022年7月20日

A total shutdown of Russian gas supplies to the EU could reduce the GDP of the most vulnerable member states by up to 6% and send them into a recession, the International Monetary Fund said in a blogpost on Tuesday.
The warning comes amid fears that Russian gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline may not resume after the routine annual maintenance ends on Thursday.
Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal, citing European Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn, reported that the European Commission did not expect the pipeline to restart. On Tuesday, the commission’s spokesperson said it was planning for all scenarios regarding Russian gas flows to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. According to Reuters’ sources, the gas flows will restart as scheduled “but at lower than its full capacity.”
The IMF noted that Europe lacks a comprehensive plan to cope with gas shortages, which could lead to energy price increases and slower growth. The Washington-based fund said that Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic are the three EU member states likely to suffer the most in case of a complete shutoff.
“The prospect of an unprecedented total shutoff is fueling concern about gas shortages, still higher prices, and economic impacts. While policymakers are moving swiftly, they lack a blueprint to manage and minimize impact,” the IMF wrote.
Warning that central and eastern Europe could see shortages of as much as 40% of gas consumption and that GDP could shrink by up to 6%, the fund suggests that these countries should secure “alternative supplies and energy sources” and encourage energy savings and expand solidarity agreements to share gas across countries.
The IMF notes that Europe’s energy infrastructure and global supply have so far coped with a 60% drop in Russian gas deliveries since June last year, and could potentially handle a reduction of up to 70% by accessing alternative supplies and energy sources.

国际货币基金组织周二在一篇博文中表示，全面关闭俄罗斯对欧盟的天然气供应可能会使其最脆弱的成员国的国内生产总值减少多达 6%，并使它们陷入衰退。
发出警告之际，人们担心俄罗斯通过北溪 1 号管道向欧洲输送天然气可能无法在周四的例行年度维护结束后恢复。
本周早些时候，《华尔街日报》援引欧洲预算专员约翰内斯·哈恩的话说，欧盟委员会预计管道不会重启。周二，该委员会的发言人表示，它正在预计所有关于俄罗斯天然气通过北溪 1 管道流入欧洲的情况。据路透社消息，天然气将按计划重启，“但将会低于其满负荷（运行的输气量）”。
国际货币基金组织指出，欧盟国家缺乏应对天然气短缺的综合计划，这可能导致能源价格上涨和增长放缓。这家总部位于华盛顿的基金组织表示，如果（俄罗斯天然气供应）完全关闭，匈牙利、斯洛伐克和捷克共和国等三个国家将可能是遭受的损失最大的欧盟成员国。
“前所未有的全面关闭的前景正在加剧人们对天然气短缺、价格上涨和经济影响的担忧。虽然政策制定者行动迅速，但他们缺乏管理和尽量减少影响的蓝图，”国际货币基金组织写道。
该基金警告说，中欧和东欧的天然气消耗量可能会短缺多达 40%，GDP 可能会萎缩多达 6%，该基金建议这些国家应确保“替代供应和能源”，并鼓励节能和扩大各国之间共享天然气的团结协议。
国际货币基金组织指出，自去年 6 月以来，欧洲的能源基础设施和全球供应已成功应对了俄罗斯天然气供应量下降 60% 的问题，并可能通过获取替代供应和能源来应对高达70% 的减少量。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

However, the fund warns that a complete shutoff would make diversification much harder as bottlenecks could reduce the ability to reroute gas within Europe because of insufficient import capacity or transmission constraints.
The IMF added that in case of a total shutdown, the entire EU could suffer a drop in economic output of almost 3% over the next year. It notes that while some countries like Sweden, Denmark, and Greece would likely see little to no impact on growth, Italy, due to its high reliance on gas in electricity production, could experience a drop of over 5%.
“The effects on Austria and Germany would be less severe but still significant, depending on the availability of alternative sources and the ability to lower household gas consumption,” the fund said.
After Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine in late February, the EU passed six packages of sanctions to punish Moscow. The bloc, which receives roughly 40% of its gas from Russia, has been trying to rapidly reduce its reliance on the country’s energy as part of restrictive measures.
Russian President Vladimir Putin noted on Tuesday that Brussels imposed sanctions on Moscow and closed off supply routes, but is now blaming its gas shortages on Russia and energy giant Gazprom.
Russia is ready to deliver as much gas as the bloc needs, if the EU is ready to stop “stepping on rakes,” he told a media conference while visiting Tehran.
“Gazprom has always honored, and will continue to honor its commitments,” he said.

然而，该基金警告称，完全关闭（俄罗斯天然气）将使能源供应多元化变得更加困难，因为由于进口能力不足或传输限制的瓶颈可能会降低欧洲境内天然气改道的能力。
国际货币基金组织补充说，如果全面关闭，整个欧盟明年的经济产出可能会下降近 3%。它指出，虽然瑞典、丹麦和希腊等一些国家的经济增长可能几乎没有影响，但意大利由于电力生产高度依赖天然气，可能会下降 5% 以上。
“对奥地利和德国的影响将不那么严重，但仍然很重要，这取决于替代能源的可用性和降低家庭天然气消耗的能力，”该基金表示。
俄罗斯于 2 月下旬在乌克兰开展军事行动后，欧盟通过了六项制裁措施来惩罚莫斯科。欧盟约 40% 的天然气来自俄罗斯，作为限制性措施的一部分，该集团一直在努力迅速减少对该国能源的依赖。
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京周二指出，布鲁塞尔对莫斯科实施制裁并关闭了供应线，但现在却将其天然气短缺归咎于俄罗斯和能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司。
他在访问德黑兰期间的一次媒体会议上说，如果欧盟准备好停止“踩雷”，俄罗斯就准备好提供欧盟所需的尽可能多的天然气。
“俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司一直履行并将继续履行其承诺，”他说。

评论翻译

Tibor Brown
Bit late for these MONKEYs - if they had half a brain they would have seen the consequences of their policies long ago

这些猩猩们有点晚了——如果他们还有半个大脑，他们就会看到他们的政策的后果

Lola Lopez
No matter how many warnings the nato gang members would never admit defeat,

不管北约这个黑帮的成员受到多少警告，但它们永远不会认输，

GX9
I wouldn't be surprised if gas and petrol are needed to make fuel for hydrogen-powered vehicles including airplanes
No one is talking about "green" electric cars and trucks any more?

如果需要天然气和汽油来为包括飞机在内的氢动力载具制造燃料，我不会感到惊讶
现在没人再谈论“绿色”的电动汽车和卡车了吗？
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Svennovich Gaduniaan
They economies would collapse, since it becomes more expensive to produce stuff. There's a lot of countries that can now be competitive. What a bunch of traitors those politicians. Hang em from lanterns

他们的经济将崩溃，因为生产东西将变得更加昂贵。现在有很多国家可以具有竞争力。那些政客们真是一群叛徒。把它们挂在路灯上

Pierreafreehomme
Italy needs gas to produce electricity, how ironic

意大利需要天然气发电，多么讽刺

Lectrodectus
IMF/World Bank = Are Nothing More Than Legalized loan Sharks, Just Ask any 3rd World Country Who Have Had No choice But To Accept Their Toxic Loans/Conditions. The Most Recent Example Is Sri Lanka Who Have (Reported) 15 Outstanding Loans from The IMF, The Sri Lanka Government Have Defaulted On Repayments Now The Country Is Bankrupt Experiencing Political/Economic/Social Turmoil As A Result.....The only Way Out Is To Borrow Even More Money From The IMF....The interest Repayments On Their Loans Would be Crushing.......

国际货币基金组织以及世界银行 = 只不过是合法化的高利贷商人，只要问问任何别无选择只能接受其有毒的贷款和条件的第三世界国家就知道了。最近的例子是斯里兰卡，有（报告称）斯里兰卡政府拖欠了国际货币基金组织的 15 笔贷款未偿还，现在这个国家破产了，导致了政治、经济和社会动荡......唯一的出路是从国际货币基金组织那儿借更多的钱……它们贷款的利息偿还将是压倒性的……

BryanH
According to Christian and Muslim practices it is a major sin to charge interest on loans = usury

根据基督教和伊斯兰教的教义习俗，收取贷款利息 = 高利贷，是一宗大罪过
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

TheFishhV3
Forget the EU. It is time that non-western countries get cheaper energy and build themselves up for a change instead of being drained by the EU and US.

忘了欧盟吧。现在是非西方国家获得更便宜的能源并为变革做好准备而不是被欧盟和美国榨干的时候了。

unexpected
what, the imf is worried that countries wont be borrowing from them and they stand to lose ?

什么，国际货币基金组织担心各国不会向他们借款，（以至于）他们会遭受损失吗？

zorba
Well then, there is a perfect solution, certify North stream 2, it is ready and waiting.

那么，有一个完美的解决方案，请验证北溪2号，它已经准备好了，等待着（供气）。

Lifegoeson
Who could blame Russia if the pipe lines stay closed. Any contractual obligations with the EU are void due to the sanctions

如果管道保持关闭，谁能责怪俄罗斯。由于制裁，与欧盟的任何合同义务都无效了

Trish. Dinky-Di Mix-breed Australian.
World already in a recession due to covid. Quit blaming Russia!

由于covid疫情，世界已经陷入衰退中。别再指责俄罗斯了！

Shootist41
Those sanctions are really working out great! Good job, EU, really hurting Russia, aren’t you?

这些制裁真的很有效！干得很好，欧盟，确实伤害了俄罗斯，不是吗？

Spyderf430s
It's so sad that this is happening to Europe, this as always been the American goal for decade to destruct the European economy and sadly the idiotic EU leaders went along with this,Europe as been peaceful with Russia all this decades, but American can't just standby watching the success and stability of Europe..

这件事发生在欧洲真是太可悲了，这一直是美国十年来破坏欧洲经济的目标，可悲的是，愚蠢的欧盟领导人也在摇尾巴，欧洲几十年来一直与俄罗斯保持和平，但美国人不愿意看到欧洲的成功和稳定。

Jjackston Burg
Oh well - their choice. Ruble and trade is strong for Russia - in the east.

哦，好吧-这是他们自己的选择。俄罗斯的卢布和贸易都很强劲 - 在东方。

angrysoldier100
why does the west want their people to suffer? thats the question that should be asked.

为什么西方要他们的人民受苦？这才是应该问的问题。

EOT
the western mafia coalition needs to live with their own stupid illegal sanctions on russia - beggars cannot be choosers

西方黑手党联盟需要忍受他们对俄罗斯的愚蠢非法制裁——乞丐不能成为选择者

Mayora
What idiots...They didn't realize, sanctioning Russia,will sanction the whole world! We are all connected!!! :'/

什么白痴……他们没有意识到，制裁俄罗斯，就会制裁全世界！我们都是有联系的！！！

JoeChmo
No. Just them selves... (US and EU are only about 12% of the world's population).

不。只有他们自己（受害）……（美国和欧盟仅占世界人口的 12%）。

tillthefourth
to bad so sad for the EU But they stated that they did not want or need Russian gas and oil so there should not be any problem right

对欧盟来说太糟糕了，但他们表示他们不想要或不需要俄罗斯的天然气和石油，所以应该不会有任何问题吧

gado184, Karma.
how will they produce more weapons for ukraine and themselves, without any fuel for their industries?
and since economy goes down, with price of gas going up, making EVERYTHING TRANSPORTABLE costing double, everyones price along the supply chain goes up.... drastically

他们如何在没有任何工业燃料的情况下为乌克兰和他们自己生产更多武器？
而且由于经济下滑，天然气价格上涨，使所有可运输的东西成本翻倍，供应链上每个人的价格都上涨了......

Phog
IMF is concerned about "gas shortages, still higher prices, and economic impacts." This is unusual for them, usually they would celebrate this, must be white rich countries affected.

国际货币基金组织担心“天然气短缺、价格上涨和经济影响”。这对他们来说很不寻常，通常他们会为此庆祝，所以一定是有钱的白人国家受到了影响。

Sandfordandsons
The fact remains that the economic viability of Europe depends largely on cheap reliable energy and raw materials .The growth of the likes of Germany could never have been possible without Russian behemoth material and energy resources at benevolence prices from the Ru
IMF pointing out that EU leadership is bunch of certified assholes and they will take them to hell.

事实仍然是，欧洲的经济活力在很大程度上取决于廉价可靠的能源和原材料。如果没有俄罗斯以仁慈的价格提供的庞大的材料和能源资源，德国等国的增长是不可能实现的
国际货币基金组织指出，欧盟领导层是一群经过认证的混蛋，他们会将自己带下地狱的。

VallejoD
My bet: The ruling plutocrats are just fine with destroying the EU economy. After working people have no jobs, no income, and no hope, these vultures will swoop in an buy up businesses and real estate cheap. The New Serfdom Project has begun.

我敢打赌：执政的富豪们对摧毁欧盟经济没什么大不了的。在劳动人民没有工作、没有收入、没有希望之后，这些秃鹫会猛扑过来，以低价收购企业和房地产。新的农奴制体系已经开始了。

Anon amous
Europe will be exceptionally lucky if they only lose 6%. I'm betting in the 15% range or higher. Self inflicted death by 1000 cuts.

如果只损失 6%，欧洲将是格外幸运的。我会在 15% 或更高的范围内下注。自己捅上1000刀将必死无疑。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

James Richardson
Russia's resources are the leverage Putin has against corrupt Washington. Considering what Washington has done to destroy Russia's economy I would completely shut the west off. Especially when Biden and Lindsey Graham have called for the overthrow of Putin by any means.

俄罗斯的资源是普京对抗腐败的华盛顿的筹码。考虑到华盛顿为摧毁俄罗斯经济所做的一切，我希望完全关闭对西方（的供应）。尤其是当拜登和林赛·格雷厄姆呼吁以任何方式推翻普京时。

Enki
The western neocons are bringing down the economies of both the EU & USA. They have stimulated a world wide negative response to their economic system by using sanctions as economic warfare.

西方新保守主义者正在拖累欧盟和美国的经济。他们通过将制裁用作经济战，刺激了世界范围内对其经济体系的负面反应。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Stoic1952
So very logical to sanction a country that supplies you with energy. I don’t feel sorry for most of the western countries who have fuelled this conflict with arms and lies. Particularly not the UK!

制裁一个为你提供能源的国家是非常合乎逻辑的。对于大多数用武器和谎言助长这场冲突的西方国家，我并不感到难过。尤其是英国！

US National Debt 30.596 Trillions
IMF: Consequences of Russian gas shut off? You have to borrow more from me....

国际货币基金组织：俄罗斯天然气关闭有什么后果？你得向我借更多钱了……

Malcolm
Ever noticed how the headlines always read "IMF warns of...", WHO warns of...", "UN warns of...". And then they go on to state the bleeding obvious - problems that the rest of the world have already been pointing out for months. Tell me again, what are the true benefits of these alphabet organisations to ordinary people, compared to their significant running costs?

有没有注意到头条新闻总是写着“国际货币基金组织警告……”，“世界卫生组织警告……”，“联合国警告……”。然后他们继续说明如此明显的问题 - 这些问题全世界已经指出几个月了。再告诉我，这些冠着大写字母的组织对普通人的真正好处是什么，与它们巨大的运行成本相比？

Stoic1952
Malcolm, They are are useful propaganda tools for western elites. The working citizens are beasts of burden who pay taxes to support the alphabet lords.

马尔科姆，它们是西方精英有用的宣传工具。劳动人民是负担重的牲畜，他们纳税以支持这些字母老爷们。

sajib6
Do not worry, Russian will not shut down GAS or anything. There are lot of your (western) friends around russian political elite, who will serve your interest lol, you will have row material to build tank and send to ukraine to kill russian. you are free to make as many provocation as you want. you are free to insult russia, free there asset. you can nationalize russian public company like gazprom german. why you worry, see german nationalized gazprom asset but still receiving GAS.

不用担心，俄罗斯不会关闭天然气管道或任何东西的。俄罗斯政治精英周围有很多（西方）的朋友，他们将为您服务哈哈，你们会获得材料来制造坦克并发送到乌克兰以杀死俄罗斯人。你们可以随意挑衅，随意侮辱俄罗斯，抢走那里的资产。你可以国有化像俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司这样的俄罗斯上市公司。为什么你们要担心，看看德国把俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的资产国有化，但仍然会收到天然气。

researchinit
IMF warns of consequences........
a bit late now..

“国际货币基金组织警告后果......”
现在有点晚了......

PeterPiper
The IMF another US controlled organization is few months behind, a recession is already happening in EU and Germany largest businesses slowing down and Uniper insolvent. But that was always plan of US to weaken Germany and make them more dependent on US good LNG and buy more US made weapons. Anyone with a basic education can see that.

另一个美国控制的组织国际货币基金组织落后了几个月，欧盟和德国最大的企业已经发生衰退了，经济放缓，Uniper能源集团已经资不抵债。但这始终是美国削弱德国并使其更加依赖美国的液化天然气并购买更多美国制造的武器的计划。任何受过基础教育的人都可以看到这一点。

Sub Atomic Particle
The EU shot itself in both feet and are now complaining it hurts.

欧盟朝（自己的）双脚开枪，现在却抱怨它很痛。

Kantol
Keep the gas valve shut off for the time being until weapons supply to Ukraine is stop. If Russia on the opposite site, sure they will punish them until the last breath.

暂时关闭天然气阀门，直到他们停止向乌克兰供应武器。如果反过来是俄罗斯在对面，他们肯定会掐着它直到最后一口气。

Mechyuda
Talking about obvious problems, but what about solutions? The IMF & other Z!()nist Western institutions refuse to tell the complete truth & nothing but the truth about solutions. Stop the severe sanctions against Russia, Iran, & Venezuela. Then watch oil & gas prices decrease a lot. Stop glamorizing consumerism-gone-wild & overpopulation. Then watch inflation stop or slow down. Prioritize per-capita quality-of-life, healthy lifestyles, & sustainable environmental solutions. Stop the imperialism, & customize different solutions & different communities for different peoples. Then watch wars become less common, while peaceful development & constructive competition become more common.

这篇文章谈论如此明显的问题，但解决方案呢？国际货币基金组织和其他各种西方机构拒绝说出全部真相，除了解决方案的真相外，什么也没有。停止对俄罗斯、伊朗和委内瑞拉的严厉制裁。然后就会看到石油和天然气价格大幅下跌。停止美化疯狂的消费主义和人口过剩。然后就会看到通货膨胀停止或放缓。优先考虑人均生活质量、健康的生活方式和可持续的环境解决方案，终止帝国主义霸权，为不同的人民定制不同的解决方案和不同的社会体系。然后就会看到战争变得不那么普遍，而和平发展和建设性竞争变得更加普遍。

Perexcreta Adastra (unreliable)
Who cares about Europe? Russia will be warm, enjoy cheap electricity and good quality bio food, that’s what really counts.

谁在乎欧洲？俄罗斯将变得温暖，享受廉价的电力和优质的绿色食品，这才是真正重要的。

Morbid Angel
Extend Nord stream 1 preventive maintenance for another 10days. Then observe if the people on panic buying mode. If EU beg for Russia gas and accept the demand. Result will be EU defeat in economic war.

将北溪1号管道的预防性维护再延长 10 天。然后观察人们是否处于恐慌性购买模式。如果欧盟乞求俄罗斯天然气并接受需求。结果将是欧盟在经济战争中的失败。

Molly_Montgomery
So Now that EU has lost their Free Thinking Self Governing Countries Sovereignty, Gold Stolen, Elected Governments replaced by Oligarchs, and the Poor Working Europeans Labour Force left like Slaves to Lose their Lands, Assets and thanks for the IMF Concerns and why?

所以现在欧盟已经失去了他们自由思考的自治国家的主权，黄金被盗，民选政府被寡头取代，贫穷的欧洲劳动力像奴隶一样离开，失去了他们的土地、资产和对国际货币基金组织的担忧，这是为什么？

龙腾网看世界（关注小程序了解更多世界实时资讯）



龙腾网www.ltaaa.com是一个致力于中外民间信息交流的网站。以翻译外国网民评论为主，倾听最真实的各国老百姓声音，开拓国民视野，促进中外民间信息交流，龙腾网每天免费推送翻译平台精品欢迎转发关注。







www.ltaaa.com

         
作者：龙腾网看世界