海外视点:国际货币基金组织的警示

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IMF Warns of Growing Global Risks, Says U.K. Turmoil Largely Contained
Fund forecasts an economic slowdown, but says central banks must continue to tighten monetary policy



WASHINGTON—Global central banks’ moves toquickly raise interest rates have fueled increased risks to the financial system, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday, while saying stability concerns bubbling up in the United Kingdom appear contained.

华盛顿——国际货币基金组织(imf)周二警告称，全球央行迅速加息的举动加剧了金融体系的风险，同时表示英国出现的对稳定的担忧似乎得到了遏制。

The Bank of Englandtook steps to address recent turmoil in British bond and currency markets for the second straight day on Tuesday. “At this point, we don’t anticipate these actions being necessary in other countries,” Tobias Adrian, head of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said at a press conference Tuesday.

英国央行(Bank of England)周二连续第二天采取措施，应对近期英国债券和外汇市场的动荡。IMF货币和资本市场部主管托拜厄斯·阿德里安(Tobias Adrian)周二在新闻发布会上说，“目前，我们认为其他国家没有必要采取这些行动。”

The comments came together with the release of the fund’s latest Global Financial Stability Report. It warned of heightened risks fueled by deteriorating market liquidity—or the ability to easily buy or sell an asset—that could combine with elevated financial vulnerabilities fueled by years of low interest rates and cheap credit to amplify future shocks.

与此同时，imf发布了最新的《全球金融稳定报告》(Global Financial Stability Report)。它警告说，由于市场流动性恶化(即容易买卖资产的能力)而引发的风险加剧，可能与多年的低利率和低息信贷所引发的金融脆弱性加剧相结合，放大未来的冲击。

Mr. Adrian said the only periods when financial risks have been higher were in times of acute crisis, such as the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the start of the 2020 Covid-triggered downturn.

阿德里安说，金融风险上升的唯一时期是在严重危机时期，例如2007-2009年的全球金融危机和2020年新冠疫情引发的经济低迷开始时。

“We are certainly at a stressed moment,” he said. Still, the fund’s baseline scenario “is one where things continue to be orderly.”

他说:“我们肯定处于压力时刻。尽管如此，该基金的基线设想是“事情将继续有序发展”。

The Federal Reserve and other central banks are raising interest rates at the fastest pace in more than four decades tobeat back inflation by slowing economic growth. The risk is that rate increases can cause disruptions in lending, which swelled when rates were low. Amid high inflation and significant economic uncertainty, global stock and bond markets have been highly volatile, with investors aggressively pulling back from risk taking, the IMF report said. Fund officials and global policy makers are holding meetings this week in Washington.

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)和其他中央银行正在以40多年来最快的速度加息，以通过减缓经济增长来抑制通货膨胀。这样做的风险在于，加息可能会导致贷款的中断，在利率较低的时候，贷款会大量增加。IMF的报告称，在高通胀和重大经济不确定性的背景下，全球股票和债券市场波动剧烈，投资者大举退出风险承担。基金组织官员和全球政策制定者本周将在华盛顿举行会议。

“There is a risk of a disorderly tightening in financial conditions,” the report said, warning that investors could continue to pull back from global markets “if inflationary pressures do not abate as quickly as currently anticipated or the economic slowdown intensifies.”

“金融环境存在无序收紧的风险，”报告称，并警告称，“如果通胀压力没有像目前预期的那样迅速缓解，或者经济放缓加剧”，投资者可能会继续从全球市场撤出。

Separately Tuesday, the IMF released economic projections that showed global growth is forecast to slow next year more than previously expected. The IMF attributed the weaker outlook to the effects of inflation, war in Ukraine andthe slowdown in China due to Covid-19 lockdowns.

另外，国际货币基金组织星期二公布的经济预测显示，预计明年全球经济增长的放缓幅度将超过此前的预期。IMF将经济前景趋弱归因于通胀、乌克兰战争以及中国因新冠疫情封锁而经济放缓的影响。

The global economy is projected to expand 2.7% in 2023, down from 3.2% this year and 6% in 2021, the IMF said. The new 2023 forecast represents a modest reduction from a July estimate.

IMF表示，2023年全球经济预计将增长2.7%，低于今年的3.2%和2021年的6%。2023年的新预测较7月份的估计略有下降。

The IMF said the U.S. economy would expand 1% next year. The fund forecasts a 1.6% expansion of the U.S. economy this year.

IMF表示，美国经济明年将增长1%。国际货币基金组织预计今年美国经济将增长1.6%。

Central banks must act to keep inflationary pressures from becoming entrenched, the fund said in its report. It referenced a period of the 1970s when the Fed raised rates aggressively to bring down inflation but thenreversed course prematurely for fear of inflicting more pain on the labor market than the public and Congress would tolerate.

imf在报告中表示，各国央行必须采取行动，防止通胀压力根深蒂固。它提到了上世纪70年代的一段时期，当时美联储大举加息以压低通胀，但后来又过早地改变了做法，因为担心这会给劳动力市场带来公众和国会无法容忍的痛苦。

“Policy makers should heed the lessons of the past,” the fund said.

“政策制定者应该吸取过去的教训，”imf表示。

Recent turmoil in British bond and currency markets has exposed potential risks lurking in pensions and government bond markets, which were relative oases of calm in past financial flare-ups. The Bank of England extended support targeted at pension funds for the second day in a row on Tuesday, the latest attempt to contain the fallout of a furious bond-market selloff that has threatened U.K. financial stability.

最近英国债券和货币市场的动荡暴露了养老金和政府债券市场潜在的风险，这两个市场在过去的金融危机中是相对平静的绿洲。英国央行(Bank of England)周二连续第二天延长了针对养老基金的支持力度，这是央行为遏制债券市场疯狂抛售所带来的影响而做出的最新努力。债券市场的抛售已经威胁到英国的金融稳定。

The U.K. government on Sept. 23 announced a package of tax cuts that would have added significantly to deficits. In response, the poundsank to a record low against the dollar, and yields on British bonds, known as gilts, shot up.

9月23日，英国政府宣布了一项原本会大幅增加赤字的减税计划。作为回应，英镑兑美元汇率跌至历史新低，英国债券(即金边债券)的收益率飙升。

“Dramatic stress in the gilts market shows how sudden price moves combined with forced selling and deleveraging dynamics can lead to disorderly conditions that could threaten broader market functioning and stability,” the IMF said in its report Tuesday.

国际货币基金组织在周二的报告中说:“英国国债市场的巨大压力表明，突然的价格波动加上被迫抛售和去杠杆化的动态，可能会导致无序的状况，从而威胁更广泛的市场功能和稳定。”

The IMF warned emerging market economies could bemost affected by any downturn, squeezed by high borrowing costs, high inflation and volatile commodity markets. Corporate borrowing costs have also jumped, the IMF said, while warning about risks in the U.S. housing market, pointing to the nonbank financial firms that play an increasingly large role in mortgage finance but are less regulated than banks.

IMF警告称，受任何经济低迷影响最大的可能是新兴市场经济体，它们受到高借贷成本、高通胀和大宗商品市场波动的挤压。IMF称，企业借贷成本也跳升，同时对美国房地产市场的风险提出警告，指出非银行金融机构在抵押贷款融资中发挥着越来越大的作用，但受到的监管不如银行。

Policy makers should contain further build up of vulnerabilities by adjusting policy levers such as underwriting standards and supervisory pressure to control pockets of risk, Mr. Adrian said in a blog post accompanying Tuesday’s report.

阿德里安在周二的报告附带的一篇博客文章中说，政策制定者应该通过调整承保标准和监管压力等政策杠杆来控制风险的进一步积聚。

“Policy makers face an unusually challenging financial stability environment,” he wrote. Risks to financial stability have substantially increased “amid the highly uncertain global environment.”

他写道:“政策制定者面临一个异常具有挑战性的金融稳定环境。”“在高度不确定的全球环境中”，金融稳定风险大幅增加。

作者：览闻辩见