国际货币基金组织对全球经济的预测

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The IMF’s forecast for the global economy



For some time fear of a world economic downturn has been widespread. Yet the most recent business surveys suggest stronger-than-expected global growth in the first quarter of 2023. The International Monetary Fund will weigh up the good and the bad when it updates its economic forecasts on Tuesday. The most important question that the fund faces is how much growth will suffer from the tighter monetary policy implemented by central banks to fight inflation.

In its last projections, in January, the fund predicted that the world economy would expand by 2.9% in 2023, less than its long-run average of 3.8%. Since then higher interest rates have brought about a banking crisis that might yet squeeze America’s economy by making credit harder to come by. Investors now expect central bankers to be more cautious about raising rates. But, although the latest data have brought good news about growth, they also show that the world’s inflation problem has not gone away.

The IMF’s forecast for the global economy

国际货币基金组织对全球经济的预测

For some time, fear of a world economic downturn has been widespread. Yet the most recent business surveys suggest stronger-than-expected global growth in the first quarter of 2023.

一段时间以来，对世界经济下滑的恐惧一直很普遍。然而，最近的商业调查显示，2023年第一季度全球经济增长强于预期。

The International Monetary Fund will weigh up the good and the bad when it updates its economic forecasts on Tuesday. The most important question that the fund faces is how much growth will suffer from the tighter monetary policy implemented by central banks to fight inflation.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）将在周二更新经济预测时权衡利弊。IMF面临的最重要问题是：各国央行为对抗通胀而实施的收紧货币政策将给经济增长带来多大的负面影响。



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In its last projections, in January, the fund predicted that the world economy would expand by 2.9% in 2023, less than its long-run average of 3.8%.

在1月份的最新预测中，该基金预测2023年世界经济将增长2.9%，低于3.8%的长期平均水平。

Since then, higher interest rates have brought about a banking crisis that might yet squeeze America’s economy by making credit harder to come by.

从那以后，更高的利率带来了一场银行业危机，这场危机可能会通过使信贷更难获得来挤压美国经济。

Investors now expect central bankers to be more cautious about raising rates. But, although the latest data have brought good news about growth, they also show that the world’s inflation problem has not gone away.

投资者现在预计央行行长对加息将更加谨慎。但是，尽管最新数据带来了有关增长的好消息，但它们也表明，全球通胀问题并没有消失。



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