【经济专题双语】国际货币基金组织 2021年10月《世界经济展望》概要

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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK OCT 2021

《世界经济展望》 2021年10月

RECOVERY DURING A PANDEMIC

疫情期间的经济复苏

Health Concerns, Supply Disruptions,

and Price Pressures

健康问题、供给扰动和价格压力

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

概要



图源：国际货币基金组织英文网站

The global economic recovery is continuing, even as the pandemic resurges. The fault lines opened up by COVID-19 are looking more persistent—near-term divergences are expected to leave lasting imprints on medium-term performance. Vaccine access and early policy support are the principal drivers of the gaps. Rapid spread of Delta and the threat of new variants have increased uncertainty about how quickly the pandemic can be overcome. Policy choices have become more difficult, confronting multidimensional challenges—subdued employment growth, rising inflation, food insecurity, the setback to human capital accumulation, and climate change—with limited room to maneuver.

新冠疫情卷土重来，但全球经济仍在持续复苏。新冠疫情造成的“断层”似乎将持续更长时间， 这是因为各国短期经济走势的分化将对中期经济表现产生持久影响。 这种差距主要是由各国疫苗获取能力和早期政策支持力度不同造成的。德尔塔病毒正迅速传播， 新变种病毒也可能出现，这给疫情的持续时间带来了更多不确定性。各国开展政策选择的难度加大， 且涉及多方面的挑战，包括就业增长疲软、通货膨胀上升、粮食安全问题、人力资本积累倒退、气候变化等，而当局的政策余地则较为有限。

The forecast: The global economy is projected to grow 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022 (0.1 percentage point lower for 2021 than in the July 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update). The downward revision for 2021 reflects a downgrade for advanced economies—in part due to supply disruptions—and for low-income developing countries, largely due to worsening pandemic dynamics. This is partially offset by stronger near-term prospects among some commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies. Employment is generally expected to continue lagging the recovery in output.

预测： 我们预计全球经济将在2021年增长5.9%，在2022年增长4.9%（2021年的预测值较2021年7月《世界经济展望》更新的预测值下调0.1个百分点）。我们下调2021年全球增长预测值的原因是发达经济体和低收入发展中国家的预测增速放缓。其中， 发达经济体预测增速放缓在一定程度上是供给中断造成的；低收入发展中国家预测增速放缓则主要由疫情恶化所致。一些出口大宗商品的新兴市场和发展中经济体的短期经济前景有所改善， 这部分地抵消了上述两组国家前景的恶化。我们预计就业增长将在总体上继续滞后于产出复苏。

Beyond 2022 global growth is projected to moderate to about 3.3 percent over the medium term. Advanced economy output is forecast to exceed pre-pandemic medium-term projections—largely reflecting sizable anticipated further policy support in the United States that includes measures to increase potential. By contrast, persistent output losses are anticipated for the emerging market and developing economy group due to slower vaccine rollouts and generally less policy support compared to advanced economies.

2022年之后， 全球经济增速预计将在中期内放缓至3.3%。我们预计，发达经济体的产出水平将超过疫情前的中期预测， 这主要反映了美国将进一步提供的大规模政策支持， 包括提高增长潜力的措施。相比之下， 新兴市场和发展中经济体的疫苗推广速度较慢， 提供的政策支持也通常少于发达经济体， 因此它们将遭受持续的产出损失。

Headline inflation rates have increased rapidly in the United States and in some emerging market and developing economies. In most cases, rising inflation reflects pandemic-related supply-demand mismatches and higher commodity prices compared to their low base from a year ago. As discussed in Chapters 1 and 2, for the most part, price pressures are expected to subside in 2022. In some emerging market and developing economies, price pressures are expected to persist because of elevated food prices, lagged effects of higher oil prices, and exchange rate depreciation lifting the prices of imported goods. However, great uncertainty surrounds inflation prospects—primarily stemming from the path of the pandemic, the duration of supply disruptions, and how inflation expectations may evolve in this environment.

美国以及一些新兴市场和发展中经济体的总体通胀率迅速上升。在大多数情况下，通胀上升反映了与疫情有关的供需错配问题以及大宗商品价格相对一年前低水平的上涨。 正如《世界经济展望》第一章和第二章所述，大部分价格压力预计将在2022年消退。在一些新兴市场和发展中经济体， 价格压力预计将持续下去， 因为食品价格居高不下， 油价上涨存在滞后效应， 以及汇率贬值导致进口品价格上升。然而， 通胀前景存在巨大的不确定性。这种不确定性主要来自于疫情的未来走势、 供给中断的持续时间，  以及通胀预期在该环境下的演化情况。

Overall, the balance of risks for growth is tilted to the downside. The major source of concern is that more aggressive SARS-CoV-2 variants could emerge before widespread vaccination is reached.

总体而言，增长风险偏向下行。主要的担心是：在疫苗广泛普及之前，可能出现更厉害的新冠变种病毒。

Inflation risks are skewed to the upside and could materialize if pandemic-induced supply-demand mismatches continue longer than expected (including if the damage to supply potential turns out worse than anticipated), leading to more sustained price pressures and rising inflation expectations that prompt a faster-than-anticipated monetary normalization in advanced economies (see also the October 2021 Global Financial Stability Report).

通胀风险偏向上行。 如果疫情导致的供需失衡比预计持续更长时间 （包括在供给潜力的破坏比预计更为严重的情况下），那么通胀风险可能变为现实，从而导致价格压力更为持久、通胀预期不断上升， 这将使发达经济体比预期更快推动货币政策回归常态（另见2021年10月《全球金融稳定报告》。

Multilateral efforts to speed up global vaccine access, provide liquidity and debt relief to constrained economies, and mitigate and adapt to climate change remain essential. Speeding up the vaccination of the world population remains the top policy priority, while continuing the push for widespread testing and investing in therapeutics. This would save millions of lives, help prevent the emergence of new variants, and hasten the global economic recovery. As discussed in Chapter 1, an IMF proposal lays out concrete, cost-effective steps to vaccinate at least 40 percent of the population in every country by the end of 2021 and 70 percent by mid-2022. It is also crucial to ensure that financially constrained countries can continue essential spending while meeting other obligations. The IMF’s recent General Allocation of Special Drawing Rights, equivalent to $650 billion, provided much-needed international liquidity. Moreover, doubling down efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions is critical—current actions and pledges are not enough to prevent a dangerous overheating of the planet. The international community should also resolve trade tensions and reverse the trade restrictions implemented in 2018–19, strengthen the rules-based multilateral trading system, and complete an agreement on a global minimum for corporate taxes that halts a race to the bottom and helps bolster finances to fund critical public investments.

应通过多边工作加快全球疫苗供给， 向受到资金约束的经济体提供流动性和债务减免， 并采取措施适应和缓解气候变化——这些措施依然至关重要。 加快全球疫苗普及仍是政策的重中之重。同时，各方还应推进大面积检测，加大对治疗方法的研发投入。这将挽救数百万人的生命，帮助避免新变种毒株的出现，并推动全球经济更快复苏。正如《世界经济展望》第一章所述， IMF就疫苗普及提出了一项切实可行、有成本效益的方案，  目标是让所有国家的疫苗接种率在202 1年底达到至少40%， 在2022年中期达到至少70%。此外， 还必须确保资金受到约束的国家能够继续开展基本支出， 同时履行其他支出义务。IMF最近开展了6500亿美元规模的特别提款权普遍分配， 这为有关国家提供了亟需的国际流动性。此外，各方必须加大力度减少温室气体排放——目前各方的行动和承诺还不足以防止全球过快升温。国际社会还应化解贸易紧张局势， 取消201 8年至201 9年实施的贸易限制措施， 加强基于规则的多边贸易体系， 以及就全球最低企业税率最终达成一致——全球最低企业税率将避免各国开展“逐底竞争”，帮助各国获得更多资金来进行重大公共投资。

At the national level, the policy mix should continue to be tailored to local pandemic and economic conditions, aiming for maximum sustainable employment while protecting the credibility of policy frameworks.

在国家层面上， 各国应继续根据本地疫情状况和经济形势调整政策组合， 以期实现最大程度的可持续就业， 同时维护政策框架的公信力。

Fiscal policy: The imperatives will depend on the stage of the pandemic (also see the October 2021 Fiscal Monitor). Health care-related spending remains the priority. As the pandemic persists and fiscal space is limited in some countries, lifelines and transfers will need to become increasingly targeted to the worst affected and provide retraining and support for reallocation. Where health metrics permit, emphasis should shift toward measures to secure the recovery and invest in longer-term structural goals.

• 财政政策： 各国的政策重点取决于其所处的疫情阶段 （另见2021年10月 《财政监测报告》）。医疗卫生支出仍是重点所在。由于新冠疫情持续不退、 一些国家财政空间有限， 各国应提高救助措施和转移支付的针对性，为受影响最大的群体提供供再培训和支持措施， 促进劳动力的重新配置。在防疫指标允许的情况下，各国应将重点转

Initiatives should be embedded in medium-term frameworks with credible revenue and expenditure measures ensuring debt sustainability.

向保障经济复苏和投资长期结构性目标的措施。各国应将有关举措纳入中期框架，同时实施可信的收入和支出措施， 以确保债务可持续性。

Monetary policy: Although central banks can generally look through transitory inflation pressures and avoid tightening until there is more clarity on underlying price dynamics, they should be prepared to act quickly if the recovery strengthens faster than expected or risks of rising inflation expectations become tangible. In settings where inflation is rising amid still-subdued employment rates and risks of expectations de-anchoring are becoming concrete, monetary policy may need to be tightened to get ahead of price pressures, even if that delays the employment recovery. The alternative of waiting for stronger employment outcomes runs the risk that inflation increases in a self-fulfilling way, undermining the credibility of the policy framework and creating more uncertainty. A spiral of doubt could hold back private investment and lead to precisely the slower employment recovery central banks seek to avoid when holding off on policy tightening. By contrast, monetary policy can remain accommodative where inflation pressures are contained, inflation expectations are still below the central bank target, and labor market slack remains. The unprecedented conjuncture makes transparent and clear communication about the outlook for monetary policy even more critical.

• 货币政策：一般情况下，央行能够不囿于临时性的通胀压力，避免贸然收紧货币政策，直到底层价格变化变得更加清晰为止。尽管如此，央行应做好准备，在经济复苏快于预期或通胀预期上升的风险迫近时，快速采取行动。如果在就业依然低迷的情况下通胀持续上升，通胀预期发生变化的风险变得更为明确， 那么可能需要通过收紧货币政策来遏制价格压力， 即使这会导致就业恢复得更慢。 如果等到就业形势好转后再收紧货币政策， 通胀可能会以自我实现的方式上升， 这会损害政策框架的公信力并增加不确定性。 随着这种怀疑情绪的不断加重，私人投资将被拖累，这将导致就业复苏步伐放慢，而这恰恰是央行推迟收紧货币政策时力图避免出现的结果。相反，在通胀压力得到控制、通胀预期仍低于央行目标、劳动力市场依然不景气的情况下， 货币政策可以继续保持宽松。 在当前这种前所未有的环境下， 就未来货币政策做出透明、 清晰的沟通更加重要。

Preparing for the post-pandemic economy: Finally, it is important to deal with the challenges of the post-pandemic economy: reversing the pandemic-induced setback to human capital accumulation, facilitating new growth opportunities related to green technology and digitalization, reducing inequality, and ensuring sustainable public finances. Chapter 3 explores one dimension of this policy agenda—the importance of basic research investment for spurring productivity growth.

• 为疫情后的经济做好准备：最后，我们必须应对疫情后经济带来的挑战， 扭转疫情导致的人力资本积累倒退，促进与绿色技术和数字化有关的新的增长机会， 减轻不平等问题， 并确保可持续的公共财政。  《世界经济展望》第三章探讨上述政策议程的一个方面——基础研究投资对于促进生产率增长的重要性。

来源：国际货币基金组织中英文网站

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