【ICDPASO】国际货币基金组织发布武装冲突对世界经济的影响分析,为全球各经济体敲响警钟

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国际商事争端预防与解决组织



2022年3月15日，国际货币基金组织发布分析博客，阐释并预测了乌克兰武装冲突对世界经济的影响，指明其将通过阻遏经济增长和提高交易价格对全球经济造成重大打击，为全球各经济体敲响警钟。

分析博客指出，全球的经济将在未来感受到明显的增长放缓和通胀加剧，这主要由三方面原因造成。第一，食品和能源价格的上涨将进一步刺激通货膨胀并反过来侵蚀收入的价值、压制人们的需求。第二，特别是与武装冲突相毗邻的经济体，将不得不努力应对贸易、供应链和资金汇兑的中断以及难民潮的激增。第三，商业信心的降低和投资者不确定性的增加将打压资产的价值，收紧金融环境并可能刺激资本从新兴市场中外流。

对于欧洲而言，除去乌克兰因武装冲突而直接遭受的损失外，各国对俄罗斯的空前制裁将损害金融中介（Financial Intermediation）和贸易，不可避免地造成俄罗斯经济的深度衰退。卢布的贬值促进了通货膨胀，进一步降低了人民的生活水平。除此之外，欧洲政府在能源和国防的预算方面也将面临巨大的财政压力。

对于高加索地区和中亚地区而言，这些与武装冲突毗邻的国家将感受到俄罗斯的经济衰退和制裁带来的巨大影响。密切的贸易与支付系统关联将抑制它们在贸易、汇兑、投资和旅游方面的发展，从而对经济增长、通货膨胀等方面产生不利影响。

对于西半球而言，武装冲突给西半球带来的不良影响主要体现在食品和能源价格的上涨。高昂的商品价格可能会大大加快拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的通货膨胀，各经济体的中央银行可能会因此面临巨大压力。由于美国与乌克兰、俄罗斯两国的经济联系较少，其可能受到的不利影响也将相应较小。

对于亚洲和太平洋地区而言，由于缺乏密切的经济联系，亚太地区将承受的溢出效应可能较为有限，但欧洲和全球经济增长的放缓将对相关主要出口国造成严重的间接影响。对于中国而言，受其财政刺激措施的影响，其将承受的直接影相应较小。与此同时，由于俄罗斯购买其出口的商品和能源相对较少，从而中国将受到的间接影响也较为有限。中国将面临的主要风险在于大宗商品价格的上涨和大型出口市场需求的减弱。

“我们生活在一个（相比以往）更加容易遭受冲击的世界，”国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜• 格奥尔基耶娃（Kristalina Georgieva）在最近的一次简报会上说道，“我们需要以集体的力量来应对即将到来的冲击。”虽然一些影响可能在多年之后才会完全显露，但目前已有迹象表明，武装冲突和由此导致的商品成本激增问题已经使得一些经济体的政策制定者更加难以在遏制通货膨胀和支持经济从新冠肺炎疫情中复苏之间取得适宜的平衡。各经济体需要以积极的姿态，团结地应对即将到来的经济冲击。

【ICDPASO】IMF Analyzed Impact of the Conflict on World Economy, Alerting Global Economies

On March 15, 2022, the blog released by International Monetary Fund (IMF) explained and predicted the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the global economy, and stated the conflict is a major blow to the world economy that will hurt growth and raise prices, alerting global economies.

According to the IMF blog, the global economy will feel the slower growth and faster inflation in the future, and impacts will flow through three main channels. One, higher food and energy prices will push up inflation further which will in turn erode the value of incomes and weigh on demand. Two, neighboring economies in particular will grapple with disrupted trade, supply chains, and remittances as well as a historic surge in refugee flows. And three, reduced business confidence and higher investor uncertainty will weigh on asset prices, tightening financial conditions and potentially spurring capital outflows from emerging markets.

For Europe, the toll is already immense in Ukraine. Unprecedented sanctions on Russia will impair financial intermediation and trade, inevitably causing a deep recession there. The ruble’s depreciation is fueling inflation, further diminishing living standards for the population. European governments also may confront fiscal pressures from additional spending on energy security and defense budgets.

For the Caucasus and Central Asia, these neighboring nations will feel greater consequences from Russia’s recession and the sanctions. Close trade and payment-system links will curb trade, remittances, investment, and tourism, adversely affecting economic growth and inflation.

For Western Hemisphere, the adverse impact are mainly reflected in the higher Food and energy prices. High commodity prices are likely to significantly quicken inflation for Latin America and the Caribbean, and central banks of all economies may have to further defend inflation-fighting credibility. The US has few ties to Ukraine and Russia, diluting direct effects.

For Asia and the Pacific, spillovers from Russia are likely limited given the lack of close economic ties, but slower growth in Europe and the global economy will cause serious indirect effects on major exporters. For China, immediate effects should be smaller because of its fiscal stimulus and Russia buys a relatively small amount of its exported commodity and energy. Still, China has to face the challenges of higher commodity prices and weakening demand in big export markets.

“We live in a more shock-prone world,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva recently told reporters at a briefing. “And we need the strength of the collective to deal with shocks to come.” While some effects may not fully come into focus for many years, there are already clear signs that the war and resulting jump in costs for essential commodities will make it harder for policymakers in some countries to strike the delicate balance between containing inflation and supporting the economic recovery from the pandemic. Economies need to take a proactive stance and unite in responding to the coming economic shocks.

国际商事争端预防与解决组织

International Commercial Dispute

Prevention and Settlement Organization

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作者：国际商事争端预防与解决组织