报名入口 | 2023年国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望报告》发布会(4月20日)

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2023年国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望报告》发布会  

《世界经济展望报告》是由国际货币基金组织（IMF）研究人员撰写的经济概览，着重分析世界宏观经济形势并对经济前景进行预测，每年春季和秋季发布。中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）作为国际货币基金组织的长期稳定合作伙伴，每年定期联合发布该报告，共同致力于全球经济形势和货币金融领域的研究和探讨。

2023年春季“IMF《世界经济展望报告》发布会”将于4月20日在北京举行，本次会议由国际货币基金组织驻华代表处和中国人民大学国际货币研究所联合主办，中国国际金融学会、中国银行研究院合办。IMF驻华首席代表Steven Barnett，IMF研究部系统问题处主任Prachi Mishra，IMF研究部经济学家Ashique Habib，中国人民大学校长林尚立，中国社会科学院学部委员余永定，中国人民银行国际司原司长、中国驻IMF原执行董事张之骧将出席会议并发表演讲。

The Launch of IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 will be held on April 20 in Beijing. The event is jointly organized by IMF Resident Representative Office in China and International Monetary Institute (IMI) at Renmin University of China, co-organized by China International Finance Society and Research Institute of Bank of China. Mr. Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative of IMF in China, Ms. Prachi Mishra, Chief of the Systemic Issues Division, Research Department of IMF, Mr. Ashique Habib, Economist, Research Department of IMF, Prof. Lin Shangli, President of Renmin University of China, Prof. Yu Yongding, Member of the Academic Committee at CASS, and Mr. Zhang Zhixiang, former Director General of International Department of PBoC, and former IMF Executive Director for China, will participate in the event and discuss on the world economic outlook.

会议信息

时    间

2023年4月20日（周四）09:00-11:30

主    办

合    办

国际货币基金组织驻华代表处、中国人民大学国际货币研究所

中国国际金融学会、中国银行研究院

主    持

庄毓敏  中国人民大学财政金融学院院长  

Time: 09:00am-11:30am, Thursday, April 20, 2023

Organized by: IMF Resident Representative Office in China

International Monetary Institute (IMI), Renmin University of China

Co-organized by: China International Finance Society

Research Institute, Bank of China

Chaired by: Prof. Zhuang Yumin, Dean, School of Finance, Renmin University of China

会议议程

09:00-09:15

开幕致辞

林尚立

中国人民大学校长

09:15-09:35

主题演讲I

Steven Barnett

IMF驻华首席代表

09:35-09:55

主题演讲II

Prachi Mishra

IMF研究部系统问题处主任

09:55-10:15

主题演讲III

Ashique Habib

IMF研究部经济学家

10:15-10:35

主题演讲IV

余永定

中国社会科学院学部委员

10:35-11:15

嘉宾研讨

主持人

张之骧

研讨嘉宾



中国人民银行国际司原司长、中国驻IMF原执行董事

陈卫东

中国银行研究院院长、中国国际金融学会秘书长

涂永红

IMI副所长、中国人民大学长江经济带研究院院长

余永定

中国社会科学院学部委员

Steven Barnett

IMF驻华首席代表

Prachi Mishra

IMF研究部系统问题处主任

Ashique Habib

IMF研究部经济学家

11:15-11:30

Q&A

Agenda

09:00—09:15   Opening Remarks

Prof. Lin Shangli, President of Renmin University of China

09:15—09:35   Presentation I

Mr. Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative of IMF in China

09:35—09:55   Presentation II

Ms. Prachi Mishra, Chief of the Systemic Issues Division, Research Department of IMF

09:55—10:15   Presentation III

Mr. Ashique Habib, Economist, Research Department of IMF

10:15—10:35   Presentation IV

Prof. Yu Yongding, Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

10:35—11:15   Panel Discussion

Moderator

Mr. Zhang Zhixiang, Former Director General of International Department, People’s Bank of China, and Former IMF Executive Director for China

Discussants

Mr. Chen Weidong, Director of Research Institute of Bank of China, Secretary General of China International Finance Society

Prof. Tu Yonghong, Deputy Director of IMI, Director of Yangtze River Econoic Zone Research Institute of RUC

Prof. Yu Yongding, Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Mr. Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative of IMF in China

Ms. Prachi Mishra, Chief of the Systemic Issues Division, Research Department of IMF

Mr. Ashique Habib, Economist, Research Department of IMF

11:15—11:30   Q&A

主讲嘉宾介绍

Bios of Keynote Speakers



Steven Barnett

IMF驻华首席代表

Barnett先生现任国际货币基金组织（IMF）驻华首席代表，此前他担任IMF副总裁顾问。他职业生涯的大部分时间都在研究亚洲经济，曾任IMF亚太部中国处处长，IMF亚太区域办公室（东京）助理主任，IMF驻华副代表和驻泰国代表。1997年加入IMF之前，他在马里兰大学获得经济学博士学位。他拥有斯坦福大学经济学学士学位，斯坦福大学俄罗斯与东欧研究硕士学位。

Mr. Barnett recently became the International Monetary Fund’s Senior Resident Representative for China. Prior to that, he worked as an Advisor to the Deputy Managing Director.  For much of his career, however, he covered Asia. His positions included Chief of the China Division in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, Assistant Director at the IMF Office for Asia and the Pacific in Tokyo, Resident Representative to China, and Resident Representative to Thailand. Prior to joining the IMF in 1997, he earned his PhD in economics from the University of Maryland. He has a Bachelor's degree in economics from Stanford University as well as a Master's degree in Russian and East European Studies, also from Stanford.



Prachi Mishra

IMF研究部系统问题处主任

Prachi Mishra是国际货币基金组织研究部系统问题处主任。她在2020年9月至2021年12月期间担任研究部顾问。在加入IMF之前，曾在高盛担任全球宏观研究部董事总经理和印度首席经济学家。2014-2017年，她担任印度储备银行的专家顾问和战略研究部负责人。在此之前，她是财政部的高级经济学家，并在印度政府的总理经济咨询委员会任职。2018年，她被印度计量经济学会授予马哈拉诺比斯纪念奖章，以表彰她对定量经济学的贡献。她在哥伦比亚大学获得经济学博士学位。她的研究领域包括国际经济学、银行和金融以及政治经济学。

Prachi Mishra is Chief of the Systemic Issues Division, in the Research Department at the IMF. She was Advisor in the Research Department between September 2020 and December 2021. Prior to joining the Fund, Prachi worked in Goldman Sachs as Managing Director, Global Macro Research, and India Chief Economist. During 2014-2017, she served as Specialist Adviser and Head of the Strategic Research Unit at the Reserve Bank of India. Prior to that she was Senior Economist in the Ministry of Finance, and at the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council in the Government of India. She was awarded the Mahalanobis Memorial Medal by the Indian Econometric Society in 2018 for her contributions to quantitative economics. Prachi earned a PhD degree in Economics from Columbia University, and a Masters in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics (gold medal, ranked first in the University). Her research interests include in the fields of international economics, banking and finance, and political economy.



Ashique Habib

IMF研究部经济学家

Ashique Habib，国际货币基金组织研究部经济学家。曾任职于国际货币基金组织非洲部和能力发展学院，就实体、货币、金融和宏观结构等问题开展研究工作。研究领域包括经济创伤、金融发展和生产率等。获得多伦多大学博士学位。

Ashique Habib is an Economist in the Research Department of the IMF where he works in the Multilateral Surveillance Division. Previously, he worked in the IMF’s African Department and Institute for Capacity Development, covering real, monetary, financial and macro-structural issues. He has worked on a range of topics, including economic scarring, financial development, and productivity. His research outcomes include Imperfect Information about Entrepreneurial Productivity, Financial Frictions, and Aggregate Productivity and Overcoming Adverse Selection in Decentralized Asset Markets using Ratings, etc. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Toronto.



余永定

中国社会科学院学部委员

余永定，中国社会科学院学部委员，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员、博士生导师。曾任中国人民银行货币政策委员会委员、联合国发展政策委员会委员。2004年获得孙冶方经济科学奖。发表学术论文、文章数百篇，专著10余部，包括主要著作《我看世界经济》《一个学者的思想轨迹》《西方经济学》《经济全球化与世界经济发展趋势》，主要译著《增长理论：一个解释》《后凯恩斯主义经济学》等。主要研究领域：国际金融、中国经济增长、中国宏观经济稳定问题。1994年获牛津大学经济学博士学位。

Prof. Yu Yongding is Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, research fellow and doctoral supervisor at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at CASS. He was a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China and a member of the United Nations Committee on Development Policy. He won the Sun Yefang Economic Science Award in 2004. He has published hundreds of academic papers and articles, and more than 10 monographs. His research interests are international finance, China's economic growth, China's macroeconomic stability. He received his PhD in economics from Oxford University in 1994.

背景介绍

Background

2023年4月IMF《世界经济展望报告》

IMF的基线预测显示，全球经济增速将从2022年的3.4%下滑至2023年的2.8%，2024年则将回升至3.0% 。发达经济体的增速放缓预计将尤为明显，从2022年的2.7%下降至2023年的1.3%。在另一种可能的情景（金融部门进一步承压）下，2023年全球增速预计将下降至2.5%左右，发达经济体增速则将下降至1%以下。在大宗商品价格下跌的背景下，基线情景中的全球总体通胀率将从2022年的8.7%下降至2023年的7.0%，但潜在（核心）通胀率的下降速度可能较慢。在大多数情况下，通胀不太可能在2025年之前恢复至目标水平。

自然利率对货币和财政政策都十分重要，因为它是衡量货币政策立场的一个参考指标，也是公共债务可持续性的一个关键决定因素。第二章旨在研究若干大型发达经济体和新兴市场经济体自然利率的演变情况。在新冠疫情期间，全球公共债务率飙升，其在未来预计也将维持高位。第三章探讨了各种降低债务率方法的有效性。供应链扰动和地缘政治紧张加剧，使地缘经济割裂的风险以及潜在的成本收益成为了各方政策讨论的一个核心议题。第四章研究了这种割裂将如何重塑FDI的地理格局，以及会对全球经济产生何种影响。

IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2023.

The baseline forecast is for growth to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before settling at 3.0 percent in 2024. Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023. In a plausible alternative scenario with further financial sector stress, global growth declines to about 2.5 percent in 2023 with advanced economy growth falling below 1 percent. Global headline inflation in the baseline is set to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023 on the back of lower commodity prices but underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline more slowly. Inflation’s return to target is unlikely before 2025 in most cases.

The natural rate of interest is important for both monetary and fiscal policy as it is a reference level to gauge the stance of monetary policy and a key determinant of the sustainability of public debt. Chapter 2 aims to study the evolution of the natural rate of interest across several large advanced and emerging market economies. Public debt as a ratio to GDP soared across the world during COVID-19 and is expected to remain elevated. Chapter 3 examines the effectiveness of different approaches to reducing debt-to-GDP ratios. Supply-chain disruptions and rising geopolitical tensions have brought the risks and potential benefits and costs of geoeconomic fragmentation to the center of the policy debate. Chapter 4 studies how such fragmentation can reshape the geography of foreign direct investment FDI and how it can affect the global economy.

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版面编辑｜孙铭鸿

责任编辑｜李锦璇、蒋旭

总监制｜朱霜霜

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肖耿：市场机制与宏观政策在房地产市场的互补与匹配

张斌：高房价背后的问题辨析

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作者：IMI财经观察