【中英双语】国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计2023年中国经济增速为5.2%,成为全球经济增长的“关键引擎”

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图片来源：新华网

国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计2023年中国经济增速为5.2%，成为全球经济增长的“关键引擎”。

IMF projects China's economy to grow 5.2 pct in 2023,"key contributor" to global growth.



4月11日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计2023年中国经济增速为5.2%，2024年中国经济增速为4.5%。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected on Tuesday that China's economy will grow 5.2 percent in 2023 and 4.5 percent in 2024.

IMF本周二发布最新《世界经济展望报告》，IMF研究部主任皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙在新闻发布会上表示，预计2023年中国经济增速为5.2%，比去年调高3%。

"We're projecting (for China) 5.2 percent growth in 2023. That's up from 3 percent last year," Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of the Research Department of the IMF, told a press briefing Tuesday on the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.

IMF官员皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙表示，考虑到中国的市场规模，其将成为今年助推全球经济增长的“关键引擎”。他还补充道，中国优化调整防疫政策，助力中国经济强劲反弹，这对全球经济来说是重大利好消息之一。

Given the size of the Chinese economy, that would be a key contributor to global growth in the coming year, Gourinchas said, adding that it is "one of the great (pieces of) news for 2023" that China's economy is seeing a rapid reopening with a strong rebound.

IMF在《世界经济展望报告》中写道，随着今年1月疫情浪潮在中国消退，社会流动恢复正常，包含零售额、旅游订单在内的高频经济指标开始出现回升。

"As COVID-19 waves subsided (in China) in January of this year, mobility normalized, and high-frequency economic indicators, such as retail sales and travel bookings, started picking up," said the IMF in the WEO report.

中国经济的重新开放和增长可能会产生积极的溢出效应，对那些与中国贸易联系较强和依赖中国旅游业的国家来说，溢出效应甚至会更大。

"The reopening and growth of its economy will likely generate positive spillovers, with even greater spillovers for countries with stronger trade links and reliance on Chinese tourism," it added.

IMF预计，2023全球经济将增长2.8%，较今年1月预测值下调0.1个百分点。

According to the IMF forecast, the world economy will grow 2.8 percent in 2023, 0.1 percentage point lower than its January forecast.

全球经济要恢复至2022年遭受一连串打击前的增速，加之近期金融行业的动荡，使得一切都愈发显得困难重重。

"A return of the world economy to the pace of economic growth that prevailed before the bevy of shocks in 2022 and the recent financial sector turmoil is increasingly elusive," said the IMF.

2022年全球经济增速预计数为3.4%，2023年下调至2.8%，2024年回调至3%。

Global growth is estimated at 3.4 percent in 2022, to fall to 2.8 percent in 2023, before rising to 3 percent in 2024, it added.

IMF预计，2023年全球发达经济体经济增速大幅放缓至1.3%，2024年增速为1.4%。

The growth of advanced economies will decline by half in 2023 to 1.3 percent, before rising to 1.4 percent in 2024, said the IMF.

2023年约90%发达经济体的经济增速将放缓。

"About 90 percent of advanced economies are projected to see a decline in growth in 2023," it said.

此外，随着经济急剧放缓，发达经济体失业率预计也将上升——2022年至2024年平均上升0.5个百分点。

"With the sharp slowdown, advanced economies are expected to see higher unemployment, a rise of 0.5 percentage point on average from 2022 to 2024," said the IMF.

世界银行行长戴维·马尔帕斯在IMF和世界银行春季会议周之前的媒体电话会议上称，中国和印度是今年全球经济增长预计放缓的“唯二例外”。

China and India are "two exceptions to the slowdown" that the global economy is expected to experience this year, said World Bank Group President David Malpass in a media call ahead of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings week.

IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃在近期华盛顿举办的活动中表示，预计2023年印度和中国将对全球经济增长做出一半的贡献，而其他国家将面临更艰难的攀升。

"India and China are expected to account for half of global growth in 2023. But others face a steeper climb," said Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva at a recent event in Washington D.C.



来源：新华网

作者：中国光大银行国际业务