加纳经济学家支持总统在国际货币基金组织退出计划中的举措 / Economist Backs Amid IMF Exit Plan

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加纳经济学家对政府是否应延长 2023 年获得的国际货币基金组织（IMF）扩展信贷安排以稳定经济存在分歧。这一争论源于 Mahama 政府宣布不会将贷款安排延长至 2026 年 4 月之后。

针对这一事态发展，CK 泰达姆技术与应用科学大学的一位经济学家 Bismarck Osei 先生加入了关于国际货币基金组织计划结束后加纳经济前景的全国讨论。

接受独家采访时， Bismarck Osei 先生坚称，即使不延长贷款安排，政府也有能力维持其经济进展。他坚持认为政府可以独立保持这些成果，并指出 John Dramani Mahama 总统已展现出维护经济成果所需的财政纪律。

总统阁下已向我们证明，即便没有国际货币基金组织的介入，他也已准备好实行那种程度的支出合理化。因此，无论加纳是否向国际货币基金组织求助，他都不打算进行任何挥霍性支出。无论有无国际货币基金组织参与财政整顿，这位总统都已证明这是完全可行的，众人皆知。所以无论是否有国际货币基金组织的计划，他都是如此自律。
Bismarck Osei

Osei 先生进一步表示，John Dramani Mahama 总统的回归与首个任期不同，展现出对任何可能危及国家经济的财政管理不善行为零容忍的明确态度。他指出，这种转变在总统近五个月执政期间的经济治理方式中已得到充分体现。他强调，民众对政府在国际货币基金组织（IMF）计划结束后更有效管理经济的能力充满信心，因此加纳人民无需对国家经济稳定的未来感到担忧。经济学家驳斥国际货币基金组织财政纪律论与此同时，有观点认为政府当前展现的财政纪律可能源于国际货币基金组织对加纳 30 亿美元贷款附加的条件。但 Osei 先生提出相反见解，指出此前 Nana Addo 领导的政府同样处于国际货币基金组织计划监管下，却仍存在过度支出、严重浪费和财政失序行为，给国家经济造成严重后果。

"历史上有许多政府虽受国际货币基金组织监管却毫无纪律性。就以 Akufo Addo 政府为例——他们展现出什么纪律性？每年在旗舰项目上挥霍 90 亿塞地，沉迷于口号式政策：一区一厂、一村一坝。八年累计 720 亿塞地的旗舰项目支出，这算财政纪律吗？"
Bismarck Osei

"国际货币基金组织曾建议政府大力改革支出结构。但 Akufo Addo 即便在国际货币基金组织监管下也拒不执行。我们别自欺欺人地认为受国际货币基金组织监管就等于财政自律—— Akufo Addo 已经用建造大教堂的案例向我们证明，事实绝非如此。"
Bismarck Osei

他进一步指出，国际货币基金组织计划本质上能促进财政纪律的说法极其荒谬，并举出过往事实证明恰恰相反。他强调，财政纪律归根结底取决于政府对国家经济稳定的重视程度。呼吁构建多元化公民驱动型经济Osei 博士跳出国际货币基金组织议题框架，为加纳经济未来描绘了全面蓝图，主张必须扭转当前过度依赖黄金等单一商品的脆弱经济结构。"过去四年经济全靠黄金驱动...这根本不是真正的经济增长。" 他警示全球大宗商品价格波动的风险："金价下跌时经济就遭殃。因此我们需要各行业...协同增长的经济体。"

他阐述理想中的加纳经济应具备多领域协同增长能力——"我希望看到所有行业齐头并进...制造业...由本土企业驱动的增长。" Osei 博士特别强调要聚焦关键领域推动工业化进程，而非实施零散缺乏协调的项目。

当我们说经济正在增长时，[它所代表的应该是]加纳人民有工作、有不错的薪水、[过着]物价水平合理的生活……[以及]货币非常稳定。
Bismarck Osei

Osei 博士强调，经济增长必须转化为公民生活的切实改善，而不能仅停留在抽象数字上。他着重指出本土经济领导力的必要性："应当由本国人民主导经济增长的方向。" 并强调本地所有权和领导力在塑造加纳经济走向中的重要性。在谈到未被充分利用的人力资本时，比如失业的医疗保健和环境健康专业人员，Osei 博士表示："优质服务甚至可以出口到其他国家...带来大量可观收入。" 他强调了输出加纳专业技能以赚取外汇的价值。提及当前政府推动的农业发展计划时，他指出随着雨季来临，农民们已经开始整地备耕。在他看来，鉴于农业的巨大潜力及其在加纳经济结构中的关键作用，政府很快将面临真正考验：能否证明其有能力实现国家收入来源的多元化。
Economist Backs Mahama’s Fiscal Discipline Moves Amid IMF Exit Plan

There appears to be a split among Ghanaian economists on whether the government should extend the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) extended credit facility, which was secured in 2023, to stabilize the economy.

This debate follows the Mahama government’s declaration that it will not prolong the loan arrangement beyond April 2026.

In response to this development, an economist from the CK Tedam University of Technology and Applied Sciences has entered the national discourse on Ghana’s economic prospects after the IMF program ends.

In an exclusive interview with the Vaultz News, Bismarck Osei asserted that the government has the capacity to sustain its economic progress even without an extension of the loan facility.

He maintained that the administration can preserve these gains independently, pointing to President John Dramani Mahama’s demonstration of the fiscal discipline required to uphold the achievements the economy has made.

“His excellency has shown us that he’s prepared to exercise that level of expenditure rationalization without even the IMF. So, whether Ghana goes to the IMF or not, he’s not prepared to engage in any profligate expenditure.

So, fiscal consolidation with or without the IMF, this president has shown it’s very possible, and everybody knows. So whether there is an IMF program or not, he is so disciplined.”
Bismarck Osei

Mr. Osei further stated that the return of President John Dramani Mahama, unlike what was observed during his first term, shows a clear unwillingness to tolerate any form of fiscal mismanagement that could endanger the country’s economy.

He noted that this has been evident in the way the economy has been handled since the President assumed office nearly five months ago.

He emphasized that there is strong confidence in the government’s ability to manage the economy even more effectively after the IMF program, and therefore, Ghanaians have no cause for concern regarding the future of the country’s economic stability.

Economist Rebuts IMF-Fiscal Discipline Assumption

Meanwhile, some have suggested that the fiscal discipline currently exhibited by the government may be attributed to the conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund as part of the $3 billion loan facility granted to Ghana.

However, offering a contrasting view, Mr. Osei argued that the previous Nana Addo-led administration was also under an IMF program, yet still engaged in excessive spending, rampant wastage, and fiscal indiscipline, which had severe economic consequences for the country.

“There are instances where governments have been under the IMF, yet they were not disciplined. Don’t even go far, Nana Addo’s government, what did you see? Where was the discipline?

They weren’t disciplined. We were spending GHC 9 billion every year on flagship programs, over slogan policies; 1D1F, IV1D. We were spending GHC 9 billion within eight years, we spent 72 billion on flagship programs, was it fiscal discipline?

“IMF advised the government that they should take considerable effort to restructure their expenditure. Nana Addo never did it, even under the IMF.

So let’s not deceive ourselves that when you are under the IMF, you are fiscally disciplined. It is not always. Nana Addo has shown us. We saw Nana Addo take money to build a cathedral under the IMF.”
Bismarck Osei

He further described the assertion that the IMF program inherently fosters fiscal discipline as highly preposterous, citing past actions that proved otherwise.

According to him, fiscal discipline ultimately depends on how much importance a government places on the country’s economic stability.

Call for Diversified, Citizen-Driven Economy

Looking beyond the immediate IMF context, Dr. Osei laid out a comprehensive vision for Ghana’s economic future, calling for a decisive shift away from the country’s current fragile dependence on single commodities such as gold.

“The economy for the past four years has been driven by gold… It’s not the economy that is growing,” he cautioned, highlighting the risks tied to fluctuations in global commodity prices. “When gold price goes down, the economy suffers. So, we want an economy where the sectors are…” growing together.

He noted that his vision for an ideal Ghanaian economy involves: Multi-Sectoral Growth — “I want to see an economy where all the sectors are growing… Manufacturing industry… where the growth is driven by domestic business.”

He emphasized the importance of focused industrialization driven by key sectors, rather than scattered and uncoordinated projects.

“When we say the economy is growing, [it should mean] Ghanaians have jobs, good salaries, [a] kind of living [with] a price level of goods [that is] very reasonable… [and] a very stable currency.”
Bismarck Osei

Mr. Osei emphasized that economic growth must translate into real improvements in citizens’ lives and not remain abstract figures.

He underscored the need for Indigenous Economic Leadership, “Where we have indigenes dictating the direction of economic growth,” stressing the importance of local ownership and leadership in shaping Ghana’s economic direction.

Drawing attention to untapped human capital, such as unemployed healthcare and environmental health professionals, he said, “Quality services can even be exported to other countries… bringing in a lot of generous amounts of money.” He emphasized the value of exporting Ghanaian expertise to generate foreign exchange.

Referring to the current government’s push for agricultural development, he noted that with the onset of the rainy season, farmers are already preparing their lands.

According to him, the government will soon face the real challenge of proving whether it can diversify the country’s income sources, given agriculture’s vast potential and its crucial role in Ghana’s economic structure.

来源：The Vaultz News

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