国际货币基金组织:科技热潮助力全球经济摆脱关税冲击,但风险仍存

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Global Economy Shakes Off Tariff Shock Amid Tech-Driven Boom

Global economic growth continues to show notable resilience despite significant US-led trade disruptions and heightened uncertainty.



This surprising strength reflects a confluence of factors, including easing trade tensions, higher-than-expected fiscal stimulus, accommodative financial conditions, the agility of the private sector in mitigating trade disruptions and improved policy frameworks especially in emerging market economies.

Another key driver of this resilience is the continued surge in investment in the information technology sector—especially in artificial intelligence. While manufacturing activity remains subdued, IT investment as a share of US economic output has surged to the highest level since 2001, providing a major boost to overall business investment and activity.


Although this IT surge has been concentrated in the United States, it is also generating positive spillovers globally, most notably to Asia’s technology exports.

Risks to the outlook

Looking ahead, the current tech boom raises important upside and downside risks for the global economy. On the upside, AI could start to deliver on its productivity promises, raising US and global activity by 0.3 percent this year, relative to the baseline.

On the downside, AI firms could fail to deliver earnings commensurate with their lofty valuations, and investor sentiment could sour. For reference, a scenario in our October 2025 World Economic Outlook—which included a moderate correction in AI stock valuations with a tightening of financial conditions—reduces global growth by 0.4 percent relative to the baseline. This could have far-reaching consequences if real investment in technology sectors declines more sharply, triggering a costly reallocation of capital and labor. Combined with lower-than-expected total factor productivity gains, and a more significant correction in equity markets, global output losses could increase further, concentrated in tech-heavy regions such as the United States and Asia.

Given the decade-long increase in foreign ownership of US equities, this sharp correction could also trigger sizable wealth losses outside the United States and exert a drag on consumption, spreading the downturn more globally. Even economies that have little exposure to technology, including many high-debt and low-income countries, would be buffeted by negative external demand spillovers and higher external borrowing costs.

Such downside risks arise at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, increased use of export controls on critical inputs and trade-related restraints, and eroded fiscal space in many countries. This could interact with any reassessment of AI-related productivity growth and repricing of risky asset valuations in a self-reinforcing manner.

Balancing act

Global growth has been impressively resilient amid trade disruptions, but this masks underlying fragilities tied to the concentration of investment in the tech sector. And the negative growth effects of trade disruptions are likely to build up over time.

AI-driven investment offers transformative potential—but also introduces financial and structural risks that demand vigilance. The challenge for policymakers and investors alike is to balance optimism with prudence, ensuring that today’s tech surge translates into sustainable, inclusive growth rather than another boom-bust cycle. This is especially relevant in an environment marked by intensifying geopolitical strains and growing threats to institutional frameworks which make the implementation of good policies more challenging.



尽管面临美国主导的贸易中断与不确定性加剧的挑战，全球经济仍延续着显著韧性。这种令人意外的强劲表现，源于多重因素的共同作用：贸易紧张局势缓和、财政刺激力度超出预期、金融环境保持宽松、私营部门灵活应对贸易冲击，以及新兴市场经济体政策框架的完善。

科技板块的持续投资火热——尤其是人工智能领域——是韧性的另一关键驱动。尽管制造业活动仍显低迷，但信息技术投资占美国经济产出的比重已飙升至2001年以来的最高水平，为整体企业投资与经济活动提供了重要支撑。值得注意的是，这一科技投资热潮虽集中在美国，却也在全球范围内产生了积极溢出效应，尤其推动了亚洲科技出口的增长。

风险展望

当前科技行业的繁荣，为全球经济增长带来了上行与下行风险。从上行方向看，人工智能若能兑现其生产力承诺，今年可使美国和全球经济活动较基线水平提升0.3%。但从下行方向看，若科技企业未能实现与高估值相匹配的盈利，投资者情绪可能恶化。参考国际货币基金组织（IMF）2025年10月《世界经济展望》中的情景分析：若人工智能股票估值适度修正并伴随金融条件收紧，全球增长将较基线下降0.4%。若科技领域的实际投资出现更大幅度下滑，可能引发资本与劳动力的重新配置，加上全要素生产率增速低于预期及股市更剧烈修正，全球产出损失可能进一步扩大，且主要集中在科技密集型地区（如美国与亚洲）。

鉴于外国持有美国股票的规模已达十年新高，股市大幅修正还可能引发美国以外的巨额财富损失，拖累消费并扩散衰退压力。即使是参与科技发展极低的经济体（包括许多高债务与低收入国家），也会受到负面外部需求溢出与更高外部借贷成本的冲击。

这些下行风险的出现，正值地缘政治不确定性加剧、关键投入品出口管制与贸易限制增多，以及多国财政空间被侵蚀的时期。若这些因素与人工智能相关生产力增长的重新评估及风险资产估值重定价相互作用，可能形成自我强化的恶性循环。

平衡之道

尽管贸易中断下全球经济展现了令人印象深刻的韧性，但这掩盖了与科技领域投资集中相关的潜在脆弱性。而且，贸易中断的负面增长效应可能随时间推移逐步累积。

人工智能驱动的投资具有变革性潜力，但也带来了金融与结构性风险，需要保持警惕。政策制定者与投资者的共同挑战，是在乐观与审慎间取得平衡，确保当前的科技急剧扩张转化为可持续、包容性增长，而非另一轮繁荣-萧条周期。这一点在地缘政治紧张加剧、制度框架受到的威胁日益增多（这使得良好政策的实施更具挑战性）的环境中尤为重要。

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