国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》,预计中国为全球唯一正增长体

便宜老鼠药沼

漫长坎坷且不确定的攀行之路

2020年10月

Gita Gopinath

前言

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread with over 1 million lives tragically lost so far. Living with the novel coronavirus has been a challenge like no other, but the world is adapting. As a result of eased lockdowns and the rapid deployment of policy support at an unprecedented scale by central banks and governments around the world, the global economy is coming back from the depths of its collapse in the first half of this year. Employment has partially rebounded after having plummeted during the peak of the crisis.

新冠疫情继续扩散，死亡人数迄今已逾百万。应对新冠疫情是一场空前的挑战，世界正在做出调整。随着封锁措施放松、各国中央银行和政府以前所未有的规模迅速部署政策支持，全球经济正在从今年上半年的衰退深渊中恢复。就业率在危机最严重阶段大幅下降之后，现在已经部分回升。

This crisis is however far from over. Employment remains well below pre-pandemic levels and the labor market has become more polarized with low-income workers, youth, and women being harder hit. The poor are getting poorer with close to 90 million people expected to fall into extreme deprivation this year. The ascent out of this calamity is likely to be long, uneven, and highly uncertain. It is essential that fiscal and monetary policy support are not prematurely withdrawn, as best possible.

但危机远未结束。就业率仍大大低于疫情暴发前的水平，劳动力市场两极化日趋严重，低收入劳动者、年轻人和妇女受到更为严重的冲击。贫困人口的处境进一步恶化，预计近九千万人今年将陷入极端贫困之中。从这场灾难中恢复的道路很可能漫长坎坷、充满不确定。重要的是尽可能避免过早撤回财政和货币政策支持。



01

仍处于深度衰退

Basic overview

of work

生词：

dire 严重的; 可怕的 [强调]

In our latest World Economic Outlook, we continue to project a deep recession in 2020. Global growth is projected to be -4.4 percent, an upward revision of 0.8 percent compared to our June update. This upgrade owes to somewhat less dire outcomes in the second quarter, as well as signs of a stronger recovery in the third quarter, offset partly by downgrades in some emerging and developing economies. In 2021 growth is projected to rebound to 5.2 percent, -0.2 percent below our June projection.

在最新一期《世界经济展望》中，我们仍预测2020年经济处于深度衰退。我们预计2020年全球增长率为-4.4%，相较6月《世界经济展望更新》中的预测上调0.8个百分点。做出这一调整是因为二季度的衰退不如预期严重，并且有迹象显示三季度复苏有所加强。而这在一定程度上被一些新兴和发展中经济体前景的恶化所抵消。2021年全球增长率预计将回升到5.2%，比6月的预测低0.2个百分点。



02

复苏不均衡

uneven recoveries



The divergence in income prospects between advanced economies and emerging and developing economies (excluding China) triggered by this pandemic is projected to worsen. We are upgrading our forecast for advanced economies for 2020 to -5.8 percent, followed by a rebound in growth to 3.9 percent in 2021. For emerging market and developing countries (excluding China) we have a downgrade with growth projected to be -5.7 percent in 2020 and then a recovery to 5 percent in 2021. With this, the cumulative growth in per capita income for emerging-market and developing economies (excluding China) over 2020–21 is projected to be lower than that for advanced economies.

这场疫情导致发达经济体与新兴和发展中经济体（不包括中国）面对不同的收入前景，这一趋势预计将进一步加剧。我们预测，发达经济体2020年增长率为-5.8%，2021年将回升到3.9%.我们下调了新兴市场和发展中国家（不包括中国）的增长预测，预计其2020年增长率为-5.7%,2021年回升至5%。新兴市场和发展中经济体（不包括中国）2020-2021年人均收入累计增长率预计将低于发达经济体。

emerging market：新兴市场



03

世界经济展望

World

Economic Outlook





文字配图 | 来源：国际货币基金组织官网

编辑整理：sherry

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